A Review of the Nigerian Energy Industry

Brent heads for fourth weekly gain

08 February 2013, News wire – Brent futures rose towards $118 per barrel on Friday, heading for a fourth weekly gain as robust trade data from China bolstered the outlook for demand, while escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked concerns over supply.

China’s January exports and imports outpaced forecasts in a Reuters poll, adding to evidence of a rebound in the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, although analysts are cautious after the economy last year grew at its slowest pace since 1999.

Numbers showing China’s crude imports rose to their third highest daily rate on record in January also buoyed prices.

Fiery rhetoric by Iran’s supreme leader rejecting a US offer for bilateral talks added to concern that the biggest risk factor for oil markets won’t be resolved soon.

Front-month Brent futures rose 58 cents per barrel to $117.82 early on Friday. US crude added 31 cents to $96.15, but is still heading for its first loss in nine weeks.

“We have been seeing strong economic numbers … (and this trend) is going to underpin the oil markets for some time,” said Ben le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.

“It does not look like the tensions with Iran are going to dissipate anytime soon. They are going to be bubbling under the surface, which will keep a floor under the oil price.”

Currently US-Iran contact is limited to talks between Tehran and a so-called P5+1 group of powers on Iran’s disputed nuclear programme which are to resume on 26 February in Kazakhstan.

Adding to supply concerns is the instability in Tunisia, located between major oil producers Algeria and Libya, where the assassination of an opposition leader this week led to street riots and violence.

China’s strong trade data for January, the first hard economic numbers of the year, showed a surge in exports and imports that was not solely explained by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday and confirmed the rebound in the world’s second-biggest economy.

Exports grew 25%, far outpacing analyst expectations of a 17% rise, while its imports jumped nearly 29%, faster than the 23% increase expected in a Reuters poll.

“The numbers are stronger than expected, which is an encouraging sign,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “(But) we will need to wait until March to start getting a better sense of the medium-term trend on China.”

China’s crude imports in January rose 7.4%t from a year ago to 5.92 million barrels per day, the third highest daily rate on record, official data showed, as refineries ramped up production ahead of the Lunar New Year.

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