A Review of the Nigerian Energy Industry

WTI shrinks Brent discount to lowest level in 5 weeks

16 March 2013, Houston – United States’ West Texas Intermediate, WTI, advanced, Friday, narrowing its discount to Brent crude to the lowest level in more than five weeks, as the euro trimmed losses against the dollar and OPEC increased production, according to Bloomberg reports.

WTI gained for a fourth day as the euro stayed above $1.30. Brent’s premium to WTI narrowed for a fifth session, dropping to $17.11 a barrel from $20.79 in that time. Brent fell 0.5 percent after OPEC boosted output to the most in three months in February. WTI futures open interest reached a record yesterday in New York.

“The real move is in that Brent-WTI spread,” said Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors. “Oil is following currencies. I won’t be surprised to see that spread narrow a little bit more.”

WTI for April delivery gained 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $92.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 0.8 percent this year. Volume was 36 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day at 4:41 p.m.

Oil was little changed after the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. inventories dropped 1.38 million barrels last week to 377.6 million. April futures gained 54 cents to $92.60 in electronic trading at 4:41 p.m. Prices were at $92.58 before the report was released at 4:30 p.m.

Brent for April settlement dropped 57 cents to $109.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 30 percent above the 100-day average. Brent’s premium to WTI shrank to $17.11, the lowest level since Jan. 30. The spread was $23.18 on Feb. 8.

Narrowing Gap
The gap between Brent and WTI, which will average about $16 a barrel this year, will narrow to $9 in 2014 as new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving crude to Gulf Coast refiners from the central U.S., the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said in a monthly report today.

The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.3026 after dropping as low as $1.2991. The currency decreased to $1.2955 on March 8, the weakest level since December. A stronger euro and weaker dollar increase the appeal of investing in oil.

“This currency move is the dominant force right now,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York- based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “It’s been quite a reversal here in currencies and the currency move has had quite an effect on oil prices.”

Implied volatility for at-the-money WTI crude options expiring in May slid to 18.38 percent. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities index added 0.1 percent.

Goldman Recommendation
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) reiterated yesterday its recommendation to take advantage of an anticipated narrowing in the Brent-WTI spread by buying the June WTI contract and selling the same-month Brent futures. The spread will average around $7.50 in the second quarter, Goldman analysts including Jeffrey Currie said. It was $15.52 on Friday.

Brent, the benchmark for half the world’s oil, is more sensitive to changes in Middle Eastern and North African production because Europe has a greater dependence on supplies from the region.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.31 million barrels a day last month, according to OPEC’s monthly oil market report.

That’s up from 30.24 million in January and is the most since November, according to OPEC estimates based on secondary sources. U.S. supplies will rise to the most in almost three decades in 2013, OPEC estimated.

Awaiting Inventory
The EIA may say tomorrow that oil stockpiles rose to an eight-month high last week and diesel and gasoline supplies fell, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Crude inventories probably grew by 2.3 million barrels to 383.7 million in the week ended March 8, the most since June 22. That would be an eighth gain, the longest streak of advances since May.

“OPEC produced more oil in February, but really we are waiting for the U.S. inventory numbers,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Oil is moving along with the dollar.”

The EIA reduced its crude-oil price and global consumption projections for 2013 in the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. WTI will average $91.92 a barrel this year, down 1 percent from the February projection of $92.81.

The U.S. benchmark grade will average $92.17 in 2014, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate.

The department decreased its forecast for global oil consumption this year to 90.13 million barrels a day from 90.21 million estimated last month.

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