A Review of the Nigerian Energy Industry

GAINS bloc including Nigeria outstripping growth of BRIC nations – Savahna Nightingale

Proposed Badagry mega sea port02 July 2013, London – A new bloc of countries identified as the GAINS bloc – Ghana, Angola, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Sierra Leone is said to be outstripping the growth of the BRIC nations, Brazil, Russia, India and China.

“We have identified the GAINS bloc – Ghana, Angola, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Sierra Leone – which has seen significant increases in vessel traffic,” Savahna Nightingale, Savahna.Nightingale@ihs.com disclosed.

“The GAINS bloc expects average GDP growth of 7.9% this year, better than most forecasts for China and significantly higher than Brazil, Russia and India. The bloc is among the fastest maritime growth ports and economies in sub-Saharan Africa,” Nightingale said.
Maritime trade figures – one indicator for growth
“Maritime trade, investment interest and growth in this bloc coincide with global economic growth figures. In 2012, Nigeria’s ports alone saw 40,000 movements. Tema, Ghana’s main port, sees 90% of the country’s cargo throughput and welcomed 3,256 port callings in 2012, while Luanda in Angola was the busiest port in the bloc, attracting 3,592 callings in 2012. Lagos saw 3,368 callings and Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire 2,718 callings respectively in the same period,” she said.
“In 2012, the two Ghanaian ports collectively handled 19.4 million tonnes of cargo, comprising 4.4 million tonnes of exports and 15 million tonnes of imports and transhipments, an 8% increase on 2011,” Nightingale said.
“Trade growth demands have led to a number of large infrastructure projects throughout GAINS countries.  Nigeria is positioning itself to become West Africa’s port hub, with four deep-sea ports under construction and plans to develop its own refineries. A $200 million investment in Apapa and West Africa Container Terminal (WACT), Onne, should increase Nigerian cargo throughput by 8–10%/year over the next decade. Other large projects include the Lagos-Abidjan expressway and the expansion of Freetown port in Sierra Leone,” she said in her report.
Key figures – Expected GDP Growth for 2013
Ghana: 8%
Angola: 8.2%
Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire): 8.7%
Nigeria: 7.4%
Sierra Leone: 7.2%
FDI Flows
“Since the 2008–09 financial crisis and recession, FDI flows to Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, have recovered more robustly than they have nearly anywhere else in the world,” said IHS’s Global Economics Director for Africa Karanta Kalley.
“Parts of Asia are the only region to have plausibly outperformed Africa in this regard, but given Africa’s lower place on the development curve, Africa has greater potential for future growth.  The modernisation of African economies, characterised by a rising consumer sector and less reliance on extractive industries, has already progressed further than most analysts realised. This process should gain momentum in coming years,” he continued.
“Governmental challenges, including a variety of conflicts, as well as still-widespread infrastructure deficiencies must be addressed for the subcontinent to realise its potential, but recent economic indicators have mostly exceeded expectations,” Kalley said.
Country
Total FDI (In USD billions)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Angola
1.68
2.21
-3.23
-2.66
-1.38
1.6
1.71
1.81
Côte d’Ivoire
0.42
0.38
0.37
0.38
0.4
0.42
0.44
0.46
Ghana
2.71
1.42
2.53
2.55
2.6
2.62
2.65
2.68
Nigeria
8.2
8.56
5.94
9.51
11.36
10.36
10.58
10.79
Sierra Leone
 
0.07
0.09
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.08
0.08
Country
Annual CPI Inflation (Percentage change from prior year, LCU-based)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Angola
12.5
13.7
14.5
13.5
10.3
8.9
8.6
8.3
Côte d’Ivoire
6.3
1.0
1.7
4.9
1.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
Ghana
16.5
19.3
10.7
8.7
9.2
10.2
9.2
8.8
Nigeria
11.6
11.5
13.7
10.8
11.8
6.7
7.0
7.2
Sierra Leone
14.8
9.3
16.6
16.2
13.8
10.0
9.0
8.5

 

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