Oil prices continue to slide

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

12 January 2015 – Oil prices renewed their declines on Monday, dropping below $49 a barrel as Goldman Sachs slashed its short-term forecasts and Gulf producers showed no signs of cutting production.

Both Brent and US crude are around their lowest since April 2009 and have fallen for seven straight weeks on a growing supply glut.

The February Brent contract was down $1.60 at $48.51 a barrel at about 1115 GMT. US crude oil for February was down $1.23 at $47.13 per barrel.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their three-month forecasts for Brent to $42 a barrel from $80 a barrel and for the US West Texas Intermediate contract to $41 a barrel from $70 a barrel.

The bank cut its 2015 Brent forecast to $50.40 a barrel from $83.75 and US crude to $47.15 a barrel from $73.75.

Despite declining investments in US shale oil, the main driver in the current supply glut, production will take longer to come down, Goldman said in a report.

“To keep all capital sidelined and curtail investment in shale until the market has rebalanced, we believe prices need to stay lower for longer,” the analysts said.

As OPEC’s November decision not to curtail production in the face of falling prices piles pressure on some group members, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro met Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Salman in Riyadh on Sunday as part of a diplomatic tour in the Gulf to discuss falling oil prices.

However, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has said it will not support prices by cutting production and ignored calls from smaller OPEC members, including Venezuela, to react to falling oil prices at the cartel’s November meeting.

On Saturday Iran vowed to help Venezuela stem the oil price fall.

Refinery disruptions in Ohio and Pennsylvania threaten to add to a growing glut of crude by reducing demand from two sizeable plants, including the largest on the US East Coast.

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