Crude near 6-year lows

29 January 2015, News Wires – Oil remained weak in Asia on Thursday after data showing record US stockpiles sent prices tumbling to the lowest level in nearly six years in the previous session and analysts said a global glut would continue to keep the market under pressure.

World oil prices

World oil prices

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude stocks rose by almost 9 million barrels last week to reach nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping records in 1982.

“The market expects stockpiles to keep rising, pushing front-month prices further down as refineries enter maintenance season and are likely run at lower utilisation rates,” ANZ said in a note.

Prices on Thursday stuck close to the previous settlement levels. Brent was trading at $48.65 a barrel in early trade, while US crude was at $44.54, versus the low of $44.08 hit on Wednesday, the weakest since April 2009.

Analysts said the outlook remained weak, especially with demand slowing in China. “The Chinese government is moving away from the post-2008 investment binge and gradually moving towards a more moderate but sustainable consumption-led economic growth,” Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.

“2014 was the fourth straight year of a decoupling relationship between China’s GDP and oil demand growth as the effects of the 2009 stimulus began to fade,” it said, adding that it “expects industrial recovery and related investment will remain subdued in 2015-2016”.

Swiss bank UBS said cheap oil would not provide a big boost to Asian economic growth.

“Big, big drops in oil; small effects on economies … Cheap oil should give a small boost to Asian GDP, but not really enough to warrant major changes in growth forecasts,” it said.

Researchers at Energy Aspects said in a note that “a new normal is in the making for China – slower and less oil-intensive growth”.

– Upstream

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