03 March 2015, Lagos — Despite the seeming glimpse of recoveries recorded last week in Nigeria’s economy, global study report by Bloomberg is pointing to a decline in the forecast growth for 2015.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.9 per cent, indicating a significant mark down from Nigeria’s finance ministry estimate of 5.5 per cent. The finance ministry had earlier this year also marked down its initial estimated growth rate from 6.4 per cent.
The series of mark downs were reflecting the major decline in government revenue occasioned by the crash in oil prices and other negative developments in the domestic and international markets.
In a release last week, Bloomberg ranked Nigeria number six among world’s projected top 20 fastest growing economies in 2015 with Kenya coming number three in the ranking which has the two countries representing Africa in the top 20 growth rates, 2015 revised forecast.
Incidentally, both countries have similar socio-economic fundamentals including wide-spread poverty and high youth unemployment with Kenya, according to the report, showing 40 per cent of its citizens living below poverty line.
Last week, the international price of Nigeria’s main revenue earner, oil, showed signs of stability inching up to USD62 while the stock market showed a significant recovery from persistent bull run.
China and Philipines occupied numbers one and two respectively in the global growth rate forecast while India and Indonesia came fourth and fifth respectively.
The world economy is expected to grow 3.2 per cent in 2015 and 3.7 per cent next year after expanding 3.3 per cent in each of the past two years, according to the Bloomberg survey.
China, the Philippines, Kenya, India and Indonesia, which together make up about 16 per cent of global gross domestic product, are all forecast to grow more than 5 per cent in 2015.
By comparison, the US and UK, which combined account for about a quarter of global growth, are expected to grow 3.1 per cent and 2.6 per cent this year, respectively. The euro area probably will expand just 1.2 per cent as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi deals with a fragile Greece and embarks on a bond-purchase program to stimulate the region’s growth.