21 July 2015, Lagos – Despite the significant successes in alternative fuels, the use of fossil fuel or hydrocarbons will remain dominant until at least 2040, America’s oil giant, ExxonMobil has predicted.
ExxonMobil declared this at the presentation of its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, in Lagos last week, during which it assessed energy development in 100 countries of the world.
The Outlook presenter, Mr. Anibor Kraghar, said conclusions were arrived at based on studies of energy demand in 15 sectors of the global economy, across 20 fuel types, the technology and policy initiatives, and trade flows among the countries.
Using population, gross domestic product, GDP, and energy demand matrixes, Kragher argued that global progress will continue to drive demand, when viewed from 2000 to 2040.
He maintained that such growth will also lead to increases in standards of living, continued growth of the middle class, growth in electricity generation and rise in transportation demand and a host of others.
In his explanatory notes on the Energy Outlook, ExxonMobil’s Country Manager, Government & Public Affairs, Mr. Paul Arinze, noted that: “As global economic output more than doubles by 2040, energy demand will increase by about 35 percent even with significant efficiency gains.”
He added that energy demand in developing non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries will rise about 65 percent, driving nearly all of the global increase.
He also estimated that Oil and natural gas will supply about 60 percent of global energy demand in 2040, while the use of nuclear power and renewable energy will also grow. Also, demand for coal will peak around 2025, and then gradually decline
He added that “Eveolving demand and supply patterns will open the door for increased global trade opportunities.”
In terms of power, Arinze argued that electricity generation represents the largest driver of energy demand, adding that, “Transportation demand will rise about 40 percent driven by expanding commercial activity.”
He further noted that “Technology is enabling the safe development of once hard-to-produce energy resources, and significantly expanding available supplies.”
He explained that since the world runs on energy, “The Outlook reveals key findings about how people use energy, how much we will need in the future and what types of fuels will meet demand.”
According to him, energy is “fundamental to our way of life and growing our economy. While people’s needs and modern technology continue to evolve, so too does the energy landscape.”
As a result, he said the annual Energy Outlook is shared with the general public to broaden understanding of the attendant challenges and opportunities faced with in the years ahead, both for the energy rich and energy dependent countries like Nigeria.
He concluded that the Outlook also provides a window to the future, and serves as a guide for ExxonMobil’s strategies and investments.