OPEC predicts low oil prices in 2016


Oscarline Onwuemenyi

16 December 2015, Sweetcrude, Abuja – The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has predicted even lower oil prices in 2016.
In its latest report published on its website, the cartel indicated that world economic growth figures remain unchanged at 3.1per cent for the current year and 3.4per cent in 2016.

OPEC also noted that with slightly stronger growth in the US and lower than- expected growth in Japan in 3Q 2015, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) growth forecast remains at 2.0per cent for 2015 and 2.1per cent for 2016.

The organisation disclosed that the 2016 growth forecast for China remains unchanged at 6.4per cent, following estimated growth of 6.8per cent this year.

It indicated that India is expected to grow by 7.6per cent in 2016, unchanged from the previous report, while the growth estimate for the current year has been revised down to 7.3per cent.

The organisation maintained that world oil demand is anticipated to increase by 1.53 mb/d this year, averaging around 92.88 mb/d.

It indicated that these projections are 30 tb/d higher than last month’s estimate, mainly as a result of better-than expected consumption in OECD Europe and Other Asia.

For 2016, global oil demand growth is expected to increase by around 1.25 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report, averaging 94.13 mb/d.

It disclosed that Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to grow by 1.00 mb/d in 2015 to average 57.51 mb/d.
According to OPEC, this represents an upward revision of 0.28 mb/d from the previous report, driven mainly by actual production data from the US, UK, Brazil, Russia and China. It stressed that for 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is now expected to contract by 0.38 mb/d to average 57.14 mb/d, following a downward revision of 0.25 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2016, compared to an increase of 0.16 mb/d this year.

The organisation maintained that in November, OPEC production according to secondary sources rose by 230 tb/d from the previous month to average 31.70 mb/d.

It indicated that product markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened during November on the back of positive performance of the top of the barrel.

The cartel maintained that gasoline and naphtha were supported by strong regional demand amid export opportunities, which improved margins and offset the lack of winter support.
Meanwhile, Asian margins remained healthy on the back of higher seasonal demand in the region and a stronger petrochemical sector.

It maintained that the demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to stand at 29.4 mb/d, an increase of 0.4 mb/d over last year and representing a downward revision of 0.2 mb/d compared to the previous report.

However, the price of OPEC basket of 12 crudes stood at $33.76 per barrel on Friday, compared with $34.69 the previous day, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations.

The new OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of the following: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Oriente (Ecuador), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and Merey (Venezuela)

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