Oil price rally fades on doubts over OPEC output deal

OPEC29 September 2016, Abuja – An oil price rally fuelled by OPEC’s deal to cut crude output fizzled out Thursday with analysts doubting the cartel’s ability to seriously tackle a supply glut.

Following a meeting that included Russia, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries shocked markets Wednesday by saying it planned to trim total production by some 750,000 barrels per day.

This followed talks in Algiers as world oil producers seek ways to prop up prices that have plunged from $100 in 2014 to near 13-year lows below $30 at the start of 2016, mainly owing to excess supplies.

Exact details of the deal remain to be agreed and analysts said markets will now wait to see whether non-OPEC producers such as Russia, the United States and Canada will make cuts of their own.

“There is also the wider consideration of whether non–OPEC members, in particular Russia, will cooperate,” CMC Markets analyst Alex Furber told AFP.

Wednesday’s deal came after OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia allowed bitter rival Iran to be exempted from the cutbacks, as the Islamic republic recovers from years of sanctions on its oil exports.

The cartel’s announcement of a first official reduction in eight years at first sent crude prices surging six percent Wednesday, while energy firms across the globe have seen their share prices soar.

But around 0915 GMT Thursday, US benchmark oil contract, West Texas Intermediate for delivery in November, was down 34 cents at $46.71 a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for November shed 45 cents to $48.24 a barrel compared with Wednesday’s close.

In London stocks trading meanwhile, shares in Royal Dutch Shell advanced 5.5 percent and BP won 4.4 percent.

– Saudi blinks first –

“OPEC’s commitment to cut output by between one-half and three-quarters of a million barrels a day has done more for oil-sensitive stocks and currencies, as well as overnight risk sentiment, than for oil prices themselves,” Societe Generale said in a note to clients.

“Time will tell whether oil prices will trend higher (after a knee-jerk rally), and the market will first wait to see how the cuts are divvied up between members, which will be decided at the November OPEC meeting.”

At the end of six hours of negotiations and weeks of horse trading, OPEC said it would cut production to 32.5-33 million barrels per day from around 33.5 million in August.

“It is Saudi Arabia who has clearly blinked first, allowing Iran, its main rival, to ramp up production,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group.

“We shouldn’t underestimate the major shift by Saudi Arabia,” he told AFP. “These two don’t see eye to eye on anything so this is a huge concession by Saudi Arabia to ‘lubricate’ the process.”

Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Middle East’s foremost Shiite and Sunni Muslim powers, are at odds over an array of issues including the wars in Syria and Yemen.

‘Tipping point’

Analysts said economic pressure from falling oil revenues pushed OPEC members to reach a deal, while others warned the organisation has a poor track record of fulfilling such commitments, and traders are unsure whether Saudi-Iran cooperation would hold.

Details, including which countries make which cuts, will be worked out when 14-member OPEC — which produces about 40 percent of the world’s crude — holds its next twice-yearly meeting in Vienna on November 30.

The cartel’s richer members, particularly the Gulf states, have preferred to battle it out with non-OPEC producers such as the United States for global market share by keeping production high.

“Saudi Arabia have perhaps reassessed their dumping oil strategy to put US shale out of business as the pressure on their budgets has clearly reached a tipping point as well,” Halley added.

The plunge in oil revenues has left Saudi Arabia with a record deficit last year, prompting the country to cut the salaries of cabinet ministers and freeze the wages of lower-ranking civil servants.

“Many OPEC members are suffering economically from low prices. Their economies are stagnating or going backwards and they face budgetary issues,” said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at forex broker AxiTrader.

“So it appears the fiscal imperative seems to have trumped OPEC’s internal politics,” he told AFP.

 

 

  • AFP
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