A Review of the Nigerian Energy Industry

OPEC targets Asia-Pacific as crude market by 2040

OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria

OpeOluwani Akintayo

28 September 2017, Sweetcrude, Lagos — The Organisation of the petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has said it will rely on the Asia-Pacific as market for its crude oil export by 2040.
The group’s Secretary General, Mohammed Barkindo in a statement on Wednesday, said Asia-Pacific will require more of its oil and those from Middle Eastern countries.
“So for the foreseeable future, we can count on the Asia-Pacific region to be the primary outlet for OPEC and Middle Eastern export barrels”
According to Barkindo, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by nearly 16 million barrels a day until 2040, adding that demand growth from 2040 should reach around 111 million barrels per day.
He explained that a remarkable 70 percent of the growth is forecast to come from emerging and developing economies in Asia.
“The two major population growth centres in Asia will be India, which is expected to reach 1.6 billion people by 2040 and China, which will be at 1.4 billion. This amounts to 18% and 16% respectively of the entire world production”.
As far as economic expansion goes, OPEC said Asia will be the engine of growth in the years to come.
Gross Domestic product, GDP, growth in India and China are estimated at 6.8 percent per year and 4.7 percent per year respectively, over the forecast period up to 2040. And separately, India and China are expected to see an increase in their combined global share of real GDP from 25 percent in 2016 to nearly 40 percent in 2040.
Expansion at these levels from the fast growing economies in Asia, according to OPEC, will require supplies from all producing regions and OPEC member countries will surely play an important part in helping meet these increasing needs.
As refinery capacity grows in the region, larger quantities of crude oil will be required.
“This can be seen when you look at the latest data on trade flows until year 2040, as Asia-Pacific imports will expand and the Middle East exports are set to increase”.
Crude exports from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific region are expected to increase by 7.5mb/d between 2016 and 2040, rising from 14.5mb/d to 22mb/d, he said.

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