A Review of the Nigerian Energy Industry

Oil retreats from $70 highs but set for fourth week of gains

*Mohammed Barkindo at the presentation of the OPEC world Oil Outlook Report 2017.

12 January 2018, London — Oil prices fell on Friday after hitting a three-year high of more than $70 a barrel the previous day, but they were still on track to post a fourth straight week of gains.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 traded 55 cents lower at $68.71 a barrel at 1253 GMT. The contract broke above $70 on Thursday for the first time since December 2014.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $63.14 a barrel, down 66 cents. WTI the day before rose to its strongest since late 2014 at $64.77.

“It is remarkable to see that most market analysts believe that prices have rallied too far since consensus forecasts are significantly lower than the current spot prices,” Hans van Cleef, a senior energy economist at ABN Amro, said in a note.

“On the other hand, most investors are still positioned to benefit from further price gains,” he said.

Analysts and traders have warned about the risk of a price correction since the start of 2018, but they say overall market conditions remain strong, mainly due to output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia.

Fatih Birol, head of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, said on Friday that oil prices at $65 to $70 a barrel risked encouraging more oversupply from U.S. shale drillers.

But OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said there was “no panic” about rising prices.

In addition to the OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) that are due to last until the end of 2018, oil prices have found support from eight consecutive weeks of U.S. crude inventory drops.

U.S. commercial crude stocks C-STK-T-EIA fell by almost 5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 5, to 419.5 million barrels. That was slightly below the five-year average of just over 420 million barrels, the target for OPEC and others cutting output.

Relatively weak Chinese December oil data weighed on prices, traders and analysts said. China’s crude imports in December fell 9 percent month-on-month to 33.7 million tonnes, or 7.97 million bpd, customs data showed.

This has contributed to a fall in Singapore refinery profit margins DUB-SIN-REF to below $6 per barrel this month, their lowest seasonal level in five years, leading some refiners to scale down crude runs.

An expected rise in U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA to above 10 million bpd from 9.5 million bpd now has also weighed.

*Ahmad Ghaddar, Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing: Dale Hudson & Edmund Blair – Reuters

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