A Review of the Nigerian Energy Industry

OPEC revises 2019 world oil demand growth by 20,000b/d


OpeOluwani Akintayo

14 September 2018, Sweetcrude, Lagos — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, now anticipates world oil demand to grow by 20 thousand barrels per day.

The group’s newly-released report for September shows slightly lowered demand from the previous month’s report, primarily as a result of economic revisions to Latin America and the Middle East.

World oil demand growth is now anticipated at 1.41 mb/d and total global consumption estimated at around 100.23 mb/d.

World oil demand growth in 2018 was revised downward by around 20,000b/d, primarily as a result of the slower-than-expected performance by non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Latin America and the Middle East during 2Q18.

Hence, world oil demand growth is now pegged at 1.62 mb/d, with total global consumption at 98.82 mb/d.

OECD oil demand has been quite robust in the first half of this year in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas.

OECD oil demand growth remained unchanged from last month’s report, despite some offsetting revisions within the region.

OECD America oil demand data indicated further positive developments during the month of June, with gains in industrial and transportation fuels. There was a 20 tb/d upward revision for 2018, due to revisions in the first two quarters.

Despite this upward trend in the first half of this year, expectations for the second half of this year and 2019 remain unchanged and imply a continuation of the solid growth seen in the first half of this year.

Oil demand growth in OECD Europe is still in positive territory for the first half of this year, however, oil demand during 2Q18 showed y-o-y declines, for the first time since 2014, leading to a downward revision of 25 tb/d for the year.

Nevertheless, the steady economic outlook across the region, along with continuing positive vehicle sales, provide ground for further optimism during the second half of this year and 2019.

Expectations for the OECD Asia Pacific region were adjusted higher by around 10 tb/d as a result of better-than-expected oil demand numbers, supported by the flourishing petrochemical industry in South Korea and strong mining activities in Australia.

In the non-OECD, based on the latest available data, oil demand growth was adjusted lower by 20 tb/d in 2018, despite some upward revisions in Other Asia by 25 tb/d.

In other Asia, oil demand growth was adjusted upward, mainly reflecting better-than-expected developments in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, according to the report.

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