17 February 2019, Houston, Texas — Although the precise outlook is uncertain, the world looks set to consume significant amounts of oil for several decades.
That’s according to BP’s latest Energy Outlook, launched in London on Thursday, which considers a range of scenarios.
All the scenarios in BP’s 2019 outlook suggest that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy system in 2040, with the level of oil demand in 2040 ranging from around 80 million barrels per day (MMbpd) to 130 MMbpd.
“Significant levels of investment are required for there to be sufficient supplies of oil to meet demand in 2040,” BP’s Energy Outlook report states.
“If future investment was limited to developing existing fields and there was no investment in new production areas, global production would decline at an average rate of around 4.5 percent per annum (based on IEA’s estimates), implying global oil supply would be only around 35 MMbpd in 2040,” the report added.
“Closing the gap between this supply profile and any of the demand scenarios in the outlook would require many trillions of dollars of investment over the next 20 years,” the report continued.
The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition, according to BP.
The company says it considers the scenarios in the outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming its long-term strategy.
*Andreas Exarhea – Rigzone