– US, Israeli strikes on Iran have choked tanker traffic, halted Qatari output
– More than 80% of Qatar LNG exports go to Asia
– Benchmark Asian LNG prices rose nearly 40% on Monday
Singapore — India began rationing natural gas on Tuesday while countries around Asia looked to the spot market to replace supplies, activated emergency plans and prepared to step up production, as the conflict in the Middle East curtailed shipping and halted Qatari output.
Government officials and company executives in Japan, Taiwan, Bangladesh and Pakistan said they did not expect an immediate impact as some cargoes due this month had already arrived, but they would diversify their import sources and buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the spot market if the war drags on.
LNG buyers in Asia account for more than 80% of shipments from Qatar, the world’s No. 2 producer after the U.S., according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
In India, gas firms on Tuesday reduced supplies to companies in anticipation of tighter supply from the Middle East after Qatar halted production, Reuters reported.
Taiwan, which generates more than 40% of its electricity from LNG and imports a third of its supply from Qatar, will buy more from the U.S. and could coordinate with South Korea and Japan if a shipping blockade stretches on, its economy ministry said on Tuesday.
“We will continue moving in the direction we have been pursuing all along: obtaining sufficient quantities of energy through diversified markets,” Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said, adding that an “emergency response mechanism” had been activated to deal with the Qatari supply disruption.
Japan, which is the world’s No. 2 LNG importer and sources 4% of its gas from Qatar, could tap the spot market or have utilities buy from each other if needed, its trade minister said.
SOUTH ASIA LNG SUPPLY
In Bangladesh and Pakistan, industry officials likened the situation to the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when LNG prices spiked and supply was disrupted, causing prolonged power outages.
While Pakistan’s significant solar generation will prevent daytime power cuts, Bangladesh is at risk of shortages and may need to increase coal and power imports from India, industry experts said.
A senior official at state-run Petrobangla said a prolonged disruption would pressure power generation and industrial output as the peak summer season approaches.
So far, four out of Bangladesh’s nine scheduled Qatari cargoes for March have crossed through the Strait of Hormuz, the official said, adding that Dhaka may seek to acquire spot cargoes.
“The real question is where prices will go,” the executive said. “Prices could rise manyfold and frankly, we simply cannot afford that.”
Benchmark Asian LNG prices rose as much as nearly 40% on Monday, while benchmark European wholesale gas prices closed around 35% to 40% higher.
Pakistan, which receives nearly all of its LNG from Qatar, plans to increase domestic natural gas production and reduce regasification rates at its terminals, industry officials said.
Unlike other Asian countries, delivery delays could help Pakistan, where a LNG glut has forced local gas extraction companies to curtail output and drained its forex reserves.
*Emily Chow & Sudarshan Varadhan, Ben Blanchard & Emily Chan, Ariba Shahid, Ruma Paul, Yoshifumi Takemoto & Jekaterina Golubkova, Nidhi Verma in New Delhi; Writing by Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus – Reuters
