24 September 2018, Singapore — By 2040, Asian crude oil production is expected to decline by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), said Alexander Petryaev, head of economics and finance for thor Russian energy company Lukoil
The decline is due to low capital expenditure in recent years and crude oil output for the region is expected to decline in both near and long term, Petryaev said
Middle East crude output is expected to remain flat in the near term owing to OPEC’s early 2017 production cut agreement with other producers, but the producer group’s output will increase over the long term
Given an expected increase in Asian demand by 8 million bpd by 2040 and a decrease in Asian production by nearly 2 million bpd over the same period, around 10 million bpd will be needed to meet Asian demand growth to that year
Soaring shale output in the United States will continue to outpace the ability of its refining system to absorb it, despite indications that some U.S. refiners will boost capacity to consume domestic light crude
Total U.S. crude exports are expected to top 4.5 million bpd by mid-2020s, but could go higher depending on peak level for shale oil production.