07 October 2018, Sweetcrude, Lagos — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC might as well keep watching its back as statistics have shown that demand for fossil fuel is declining.
With oil hitting a four year high at $85 per barrel due to low supply, more statistics have emerged as to why there is even less oil in the market- these data further show that other factors abound as to why there is a less-supplied oil market.
Even the United States that has been an advocate for increasing supplies, is taking in less oil from other countries as a result of an abundance of shale oil in the country. The U.S. is looking to climbing over Russia to becoming the largest exporter of crude oil.
Generally, there are lean demands from almost all the countries, as the world prepares to shift from fossil fuel to cleaner renewables.
However, OPEC has consistently argued that demand for its oil would be around much longer than forecast, at least until 2040.
Summary of oil imports
In July, preliminary data from OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR for September, shows that U.S. crude oil imports dropped to average 8 million barrels per day, mb/d, which is 388 thousand barrels per day, tb/d lower than the previous month, yet higher than a year earlier by 188 tb/d, or 2%.
US monthly product imports showed almost no change from the previous month, averaging 2.2 mb/d, while on an annual basis, they increased by 169 tb/d, or 8%.
Japan’s crude oil imports dropped significantly in June, falling by 585 tb/d, or 20%, to average 2.4 mb/d, while on a yearly basis, they declined in June by 412 tb/d, or 15%. Similarly, Japan’s product imports dropped in June by 174 tb/d to average 450 tb/d, down by 28% m-o-m and 18% y-o-y.
China’s crude oil imports showed a drop in June, down by 690 tb/d for an average of 8.6 mb/d, following an increase from the month before.
On an annual basis, they were 260 tb/d, or 3%, lower than a year before.
India’s crude imports rose by 39 tb/d, or 1%, from the previous month to average 4.8 mb/d in June — a new record level. Annually, crude imports were up from the previous year by 442 tb/d. Product imports increased by 58 tb/d m-o-m to average 876 tb/d. On a yearly basis, they increased by 120 tb/d compared to the same month in the previous year.
In July, preliminary data shows that the US crude oil imports dropped to average 8 mb/d, down by 388 tb/d from the previous month yet higher by 188 tb/d, or 2%, than a year earlier. On a year-to-date (y-t-d) basis, crude oil imports were down by 162 tb/d in July.
U.S. product imports showed almost no change m-o-m from the previous month, averaging 2.2 mb/d. On an annual basis, they increased by 169 tb/d, or 8%. Y-t-d, product imports increased by 66 tb/d.
U.S. product exports were slightly lower in July, dropping by only 6 tb/d, to average 5.2 mb/d. On an annual basis, product exports were 163 tb/d, or 3%, lower than a year before.
As a result, US total net imports increased in July to average 3.2 mb/d, up by 150 tb/d m-o-m, while y-o-y, they dropped by 438 tb/d.
Regarding crude suppliers to the U.S., the first and second suppliers in May maintained the same order as seen a month earlier. Canada remained the premier crude supplier to the U.S., accounting for 49% of total U.S. crude imports. Canada’s export volumes to the U.S. showed an increase of 136 tb/d m-o-m in May.
Saudi Arabia, which maintained its status as the second largest supplier to the U.S., had a stable share compared to a month earlier and averaged 873 tb/d.
Iraq came in as the third top supplier, accounting for 8% of total US crude imports despite its exports to the US being lower by 242 tb/d, or 29%, from the previous month.
Crude imports from OPEC Member Countries, MCs dropped by 745 tb/d, or 23%, in May from the previous month. Imports from OPEC MCs accounted for 32% of total US crude imports.
US product imports from OPEC MCs were up by 67 tb/d, or 25%, in May from a month earlier and 131 tb/d, or 66%, from the previous year.
As for the product suppliers’ share, Mexico, Canada and Brazil were the top suppliers to the U.S., accounting for 18%, 13% and 5%, respectively. Mexico’s product exports to the US in May showed a drop of 275 tb/d, while Canada’s product exports to the US were higher by 55 tb/d.
As for U.S. crude imports by region in May 2018, US crude imports from North America increased from the previous month and averaged 3.9 mb/d. North America, which maintained its status as the top region for US crude imports, followed by Latin America, exported a similar amount as in the previous month to stand at 1.8 mb/d in May. Imports from the Middle East dropped by almost 300 tb/d in May, coming in as the third region with an average of 1.5 mb/d. Imports from Africa dropped by almost half from last month to average 357 tb/d, while imports from the Former Soviet Union, FSU increased by 158 tb/d from last month to average 198 tb/d.
Japan’s crude oil imports dropped significantly in June, down by 585 tb/d, or 20%, m-o-m to average 2.4 mb/d. On a yearly basis, crude imports declined in June by 412 tb/d, or 15%.
As for the crude suppliers’ share, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait were the top suppliers to Japan in June. Saudi Arabia was the first crude supplier to Japan, holding a share of 38% of total crude exports.
The UAE came in as the second largest supplier to Japan with a share of 23% of the country’s total crude imports.
Kuwait held the third position in June with a share of 7%. Nevertheless, crude imports from all top suppliers were down from the previous month, dropping by 219 tb/d, 69 tb/d and 28 tb/d, respectively.
Similarly, Japan’s product imports, excluding LPG, dropped in June by 174 tb/d to average 450 tb/d, down by 28% m-o-m and 18% y-o-y. At the same time, with the drop in imports, Japan’s domestic oil product sales dropped by 8.8% in June from a year earlier.
Japan’s total product exports went down by 20 tb/d, or 4%, m-o-m to average 513 tb/d in June. On a yearly basis, they showed a drop of only of 3 tb/d, or 1%.
Accordingly, Japan’s net imports dropped by 0.7 mb/d in June to average 2.3 mb/d, less by 24% from one month before and 18% lower than in the same month last year.
China’s crude imports showed a drop in June following an increase the month before, declining by 690 tb/d to average 8.6 mb/d. On an annual basis, they were 260 tb/d, or 3%, lower than a year before.
Looking at the crude oil supplier share, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq were the top suppliers to China in June, accounting for 15%, 111% and 10%, respectively. Crude imports from Russia and Iraq in June were higher than during the previous month by 50 tb/d and 30 tb/d, respectively, while imports from Saudi Arabia dropped by 270 tb/d.
In June, India’s crude imports rose by 39 tb/d, or 1%, from the previous month to average 4.8 mb/d – a new record level for the country that is always in need of huge supplies due to its population and quest for industrialisation.
Annually, crude imports were up from the previous year by 442 tb/d due to refinery optimization showing increases from the previous month.
India’s total product imports increased by 58 tb/d m-o-m to average 876 tb/d, while y-o-y, they rose by 120 tb/d. Monthly product imports were higher, mainly in LPG, which increased by 99 tb/d from the previous month to average 423 tb/d.
India’s total product exports were higher in June by 244 tb/d, or 21%, to average 1.4 mb/d, while y-o-y, they were up by 84 tb/d, or 6%. India exported higher amounts of all products, but mainly diesel and naphtha.
As a result, India’s net imports dropped by 147 tb/d from one month before, while they increased by 478 tb/d y-o-y.
Total crude oil exports from the Former Soviet Union, FSU remained stable in June compared to the previous month, averaging 6.8 mb/d. Total crude exports through Russian pipelines declined by 70 tb/d, or 1.8%, m-o-m to average 3.9 mb/d.
In the Transnet system, in June total shipments from the Black Sea rose by 23 tb/d, or 4%, m-o-m to average 546 tb/d. This increase came as shipments from Novorossiysk increased. On the other hand, total Baltic Sea exports dropped by 101 tb/d m-o-m, mainly as shipments from the Primorsk port terminal declined by 94 tb/d m-o-m. The Druzhba pipeline’s total shipments increased by 60 tb/d m-o-m to average 1 mb/d, while Kozmino shipments declined by 33 tb/d, or 5%, m-o-m to average 596 tb/d.
Exports through the Lukoil system stayed mostly flat in June from the previous month, standing at 119 tb/d and 7 tb/d, respectively, in the Barents Sea and Baltic Sea.
As for the other routes, the Russia Far East’s total exports in June were up by 40 tb/d, or 12%, m-o-m. The increases came mainly as volumes from the De Kastri port terminal increased by 53 tb/d m-o-m.
Central Asia’s total exports through the Kenkiyak-Alashankou dropped by 21 tb/d m-o-m to average 202 tb/d.
In the Mediterranean Sea, BTC supplies showed an increase by 64 tb/d, or 9%, m-o-m to average 747 tb/d.
FSU’s total product exports rose by 255 tb/d, or 9%, m-o-m to average 3.0 mb/d. This rise came as a result of increases in all product exports with the only exception being jet and VGO, which dropped m-o-m by 14 tb/d and 5 tb/d, respectively.