Lagos — The U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA forecasts that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC will earn about $323 billion in net oil export revenues in 2020- if realised, this forecast revenue would be the lowest in 18 years.
In its October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook, STEO, the EIA tied the lower than expected earning to lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive.
Crude oil prices have fallen as a result of lower global demand for petroleum products because of responses to COVID-19.
Export volumes have also decreased under OPEC agreements limiting crude oil output that were made in response to low crude oil prices and record-high production disruptions in Libya, Iran, and to a lesser extent, Venezuela.
OPEC earned an estimated $595 billion in net oil export revenues in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2 trillion, which was earned in 2012.
“Continued declines in revenue in 2020 could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on revenues from oil sales to import goods, fund social programs, and support public services. EIA expects a decline in net oil export revenue for OPEC in 2020 because of continued voluntary curtailments and low crude oil prices”, the report said.
The benchmark Brent crude oil spot price fell from an annual average of $71 per barrel in 2018 to $64/b in 2019. The EIA said it expects Brent to average $41/b in 2020.
OPEC petroleum production averaged 36.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and fell to 34.5 million b/d in 2019- the Agency said it expects OPEC production to decline a further 3.9 million b/d to average 30.7 million b/d in 2020.