Berlin – A new analysis of Kpler data published today by the NGO Urgewald shows that Russia’s Arctic LNG exports remain heavily dependent on access to EU ports.
Although the EU has committed to a total ban on Russian LNG by 2027, the data shows that the bloc continues to import vast quantities of gas from the Yamal project with no indication of a slowdown in 2026.
In 2025, Yamal LNG alone accounted for 14.3% of the EU’s total global LNG imports, equivalent to roughly 1 in every 7 ships arriving at European terminals (15 million out of 105 million tons). This trajectory suggests the EU will continue to funnel billions of euros to Moscow for at least another year.
The analysis reveals that 15 million of the 19.7 million tons of Yamal LNG reached EU terminals in 2025, netting the Kremlin an estimated €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion). Despite a slight dip in overall global volume, the EU’s share of Yamal shipments actually intensified, rising to 76.1%, up from 75.4% the previous year.
The release of this data coincides with a week of heightened geopolitical tension in the High North. In a joint statement this week, European leaders declared that ‘Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe and is critical for international and transatlantic security’.
Key Findings from the 2025 Data:
Strong leverage: More than three-quarters (76.1%) of all Yamal LNG exports go to the EU. Russia has no adequate alternative to the EU market.
Massive revenue stream: Yamal LNG exports to the EU alone generated an estimated €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion) in 2025, providing the Russian state with additional revenue for the war at a very critical time for the Russian economy.
France import country No. 1: In 2025, a total of 87 ships delivered 6.3 million tonnes of LNG to the French ports of Dunkirk and Montoir. With a 41.7% share of imports from Yamal to the EU, France is far ahead of the rest.
Zeebrugge Import Terminal No. 1: No other port received more LNG deliveries from Yamal than Zeebrugge. Fifty-eight ships reached the Belgian terminal in 2025, delivering 4.2 million tonnes of LNG. During the same period, 51 ships reached Chinese ports, delivering 3.6 million tonnes, which means Belgium received more LNG from Yamal than China.
European enablers: Two European shipping companies form the logistical backbone for Yamal LNG: Seapeak, based in the United Kingdom, transported 37.3% of Yamal LNG on its ships, while Greece’s Dynagas transported another 34.3%. Eleven of the fourteen Arc7 tankers available to Yamal are owned by these two companies. Together, these two companies control over 70% of the Yamal-EU shuttle trade.
Spain’s imports fell sharply: A reduction emerged in Spain in 2025. The country’s ports received only 38 tankers carrying LNG from Yamal (2.8 million tonnes). In the previous year, the figure was 58, with a total of 4.2 million tonnes of LNG.
Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said: “While Brussels celebrates the latest agreement to phase out Russian gas, our ports continue serving as the logistics lung for Russia’s largest LNG terminal, Yamal. In the current geopolitical situation, we cannot afford another year of complicity.
“We are not just customers; we are the essential infrastructure keeping this flagship project alive. Every cargo that offloads at an EU terminal is a direct deposit into a war chest that fuels the slaughter in Ukraine. We must stop providing the oxygen for Russia’s energy profits and shut the Yamal loophole now.
“Furthermore, we must act now to assert our influence. The EU and the UK must ensure that the Arc7 fleet does not fall into the wrong hands at the end of the year and then help to keep Yamal alive.”
The Yamal Paradox: Europe as Russia’s ‘Logistics Lung’
The Yamal LNG project in Russia’s far north is the Kremlin’s most crucial export terminal and the cornerstone of Vladimir Putin’s LNG expansion plans. However, its extreme Arctic location creates a critical logistical vulnerability: the project is entirely dependent on a specialized fleet of just 14 “Arc7” ice-class tankers. Without these vessels, Yamal’s operations would reach a total standstill, particularly during the impenetrable winter months.
Because this fleet is so small and specialized, Russia must keep the tankers on the shortest possible routes to maintain export volumes. Currently, there is no viable alternative to the short-distance routes leading to EU ports.
By allowing these Arctic vessels to offload in Europe, the EU acts as a “logistics lung.” This allows the ice-class tankers to quickly return to the Arctic to pick up more gas, rather than being tied up on weeks-long voyages to Asia. While Russia attempts to divert some volumes via complex ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, these operations are logistically strained, capacity-limited, and require a secondary fleet of standard tankers.
The data proves that the EU holds the ultimate leverage over Yamal LNG, a strategic advantage it has yet to utilize. Furthermore, as current charter agreements shift, the EU must act now to prevent these critical Arc7 tankers from being transferred into “shadow fleet” structures at the end of the year.
