Lagos — Speculations are beginning to brew as to a new and bigger OPEC+ deal, and most especially those who will be involved in brokering truce and higher prices this time around.
This week will be a major one for the global oil sector as both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC and its counterpart, non-OPEC oil-producing countries ‘meet’ to decide what to cut in order to boost prices.
Not to forget, that the market is already overflooded as OPEC+ failed to agree on a bigger cut back in March, kickstarting a quota war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, coupled with low demand due to spreading COVID19 pandemic.
Crude futures have since sunk to 18-year lows, below $30 per barrel- except for weekend when prices rose a little due to President Trump’s meddling to halt rivalry between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Now, a virtual meeting will certainly hold with both countries leading the talks which was to hold on Monday but now rescheduled to April 9.
The market now hungers for a successful bargain else, producers would still have to live with lack of storages for their oils and the prospect of wells closing due to low demand.
While there may not be a physical meeting where all OPEC and non-OPEC producers will state what to cut, here’s a look at what to expect using OPEC data compiled by SweetcrudeReports, Bloomberg, and non-OPEC from the International Energy Agency. Russia figures are from the country’s CDU-TEK, while those for the U.S. are from the Energy Information administration.
Production: 12 million b/d (April)
Saudi Arabia is delaying the release of its closely-watched monthly oil-pricing list until later this week as the kingdom awaits signs of what may happen when suppliers meet. State-run Aramco said it would keep flooding markets with historic levels of oil at least through May as it fights for market share following the breakup of the OPEC+ alliance. It ramped up output to above 12 million barrels a day on the first day of April, with exports following suit. The kingdom has made clear it will not be carrying the bulk of any cuts this time.
11.29 million b/d (March)
Russia would target a 1 million barrel-a-day cut in any new deal with other key oil producers, on condition the U.S. joins cuts, according to four people familiar with the sentiment in the industry. President Vladimir Putin said a cut in global oil production of about 10 million barrels a days is possible, and the nation is ready to participate “on a partnership” basis. But Russia won’t agree to take more than a tenth of the global cuts, according to one of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the matter isn’t yet public.
13 million b/d (end-March)
President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the oil market last week after suggesting on Twitter he’d brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production by 10 million-to-15 million barrels, sending prices soaring. Trump has so far shown little willingness to join in making cuts. The president has threatened substantial oil tariffs should prices remain near the lowest levels in almost two decades. However, he’s also made it clear that he expects the former allies to reach a deal on cutting back production.
3.06 million barrels a day (February)
Petroleo Brasileiro SA is taking the lead among oil majors to go beyond spending cuts and actually curb production in response to the price crash. The Rio de Janeiro-based company will cut oil production by 100,000 barrels a day and will idle high-cost platforms in shallow waters at projects it has been trying to sell, according to a statement last month. While other majors including Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have slashed outlays to shore up finances, they’ve so refrained from shutting fields.
2.07 million barrels a day (February)
Norway, the biggest oil producer in western Europe, said it would consider cutting output if there was a broad international agreement to curb supply. The Nordic nation, whose oil production is set to grow over the next few years, hasn’t been a part of coordinated international cuts to support prices since 2002. Norway produces less than 2% of global supply.
5.78 million barrels a day (February)
Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage will participate in an OPEC+ call aimed at resolving the global oil price war and will “keep an open mind” on how the province can participate in a solution, Premier Jason Kenney said Friday. “We cannot have a meaningful impact on global prices because of our landlocked status,” he said. “But we are open to playing a role if there’s a larger effort to stop the madness.”
4.62 million barrels a day (March)
Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, is optimistic that the meeting of supplier nations planned for April 9 will reach a new deal on oil output. All producers are in the same boat and must cooperate to achieve their common goals, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said in a statement, citing Minister Thamir Ghadhban. An agreement will require the support of suppliers in the OPEC+ coalition as well as the U.S., Canada, Norway, it said.
3 million barrels a day (March)
Following Saudi Arabia’s lead, OPEC’s third-largest producer has ramped up output. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is pumping more than 4 million barrels a day so far in April, according to people with knowledge of the matter. It produced 3.56 million barrels a day in March, one of the people said. The U.A.E. shipped more than 100 million barrels of crude and condensate in March, for the first time in at least three years, aided by a surge in flows to China, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking. The emirate said Sunday an urgent meeting of OPEC+ and other oil producers is needed to ensure oil-market stability.
2.67 million barrels a day (March)
The country’s oil production increased to 3.15 million barrels a day for April, with output to rise in line with scheduled output in oil field, state-run Kuwait News Agency said, citing deputy head of Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Hashem al Hashem.
1.93 million barrels a day (March)
After throwing itself into the battle for market share — offering main export crudes at the lowest price relative to the international benchmark in more than a decade — Africa’s biggest crude producer said it is ready to help return stability to the global oil market. Nigeria is “prepared to join the rest of the world in making the necessary sacrifices needed to stabilize the crude oil market and to prevent what is likely to be a major global economic meltdown,” Timipre Sylva, minister of sate for petroleum resources, said in a statement Monday.