– As local refining gains momentum
Precious Anga
Lagos — Nigeria’s expenditure on petrol imports plunged by more than 96 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, underscoring the growing impact of domestic refining on the country’s fuel supply chain and foreign exchange management.
Latest foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria spent ₦87.4 billion on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, between January and March 2026, compared with ₦2.27 trillion recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.
The sharp decline of approximately ₦2.18 trillion represents one of the most significant shifts in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector in recent years and reflects a gradual transition from import dependence towards increased reliance on locally refined products.
The NBS report further revealed that petrol was absent from the list of Nigeria’s top imported commodities during the review period, a development that contrasts sharply with previous years when the product consistently ranked among the country’s largest import expenditures.
Industry analysts attribute the decline largely to increased output from domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has continued to expand its contribution to the country’s fuel supply since commencing PMS production.
The statistics agency reported that Nigeria’s total imports stood at ₦13.62 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing an 18.17 per cent decline from ₦16.64 trillion recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.
Similarly, imports of other petroleum products dropped significantly to ₦748.1 billion during the quarter, compared with ₦5.01 trillion recorded a year earlier.
The latest figures represent the lowest quarterly petrol import expenditure recorded in several years and signal a major structural adjustment within Nigeria’s energy market.
Historical trade data show that Nigeria spent ₦2.69 trillion on petrol imports during the first quarter of 2022, while expenditure stood at ₦2.03 trillion and ₦3.81 trillion in the corresponding periods of 2023 and 2024 respectively. The import bill subsequently declined to ₦2.27 trillion in the first quarter of 2025 before falling sharply to ₦87.4 billion this year.
Market observers note that the decline reflects changing supply dynamics as local refining capacity increasingly replaces imported volumes.
For decades, Africa’s largest crude oil producer depended heavily on imported petrol due to inadequate domestic refining infrastructure and the prolonged underperformance of state-owned refineries. The situation imposed substantial pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves and contributed significantly to rising import costs.
However, the commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has altered the landscape of Nigeria’s downstream sector by providing a substantial domestic source of refined petroleum products.
Industry data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicate that local refining has continued to capture a growing share of the domestic PMS market.
In January 2026, the Dangote Refinery supplied approximately 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for nearly 62 per cent of total national supply. By February, imported volumes had fallen sharply to about 3.1 million litres per day, while locally refined products accounted for more than 90 per cent of domestic consumption.
The trend persisted through March and April, with domestic supply continuing to dominate the market despite modest import volumes aimed at balancing regional demand and distribution requirements.
Analysts believe the sustained reduction in petrol imports could strengthen Nigeria’s trade balance, reduce pressure on foreign exchange demand and support broader efforts to conserve scarce dollar resources.
The development also reinforces expectations that continued growth in domestic refining capacity could further reshape Nigeria’s petroleum trade profile, enhance energy security and retain greater value within the local economy.
With petrol no longer featuring among Nigeria’s leading imported commodities, the first-quarter trade data provide one of the clearest indications yet that the country’s long-standing dependence on imported fuel is gradually giving way to a more domestically driven supply framework.
