London/Moscow — OPEC+ may discuss an increase in oil output for July at its meeting on Saturday larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increases it made for May and June, sources familiar with OPEC+ talks told Reuters.
Eight OPEC+ countries have been raising output more rapidly than earlier planned, even though the extra supply has weighed on prices. The strategy of group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia is partly to punish over-producing allies and to win back market share, Reuters has reported.
On Saturday, the eight members may decide to increase output by 411,000 bpd for July, OPEC+ sources have told Reuters. Two more sources familiar with OPEC+ talks and two OPEC+ delegates said they could also discuss a larger increase.
Kazakhstan’s statement on Thursday that it won’t cut production has sparked debate in OPEC+, some of the sources said on Friday, with one saying that this factor may tilt discussions towards a larger output hike on Saturday.
All sources declined to be identified by name due to the sensitivity of the matter. OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday.
United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, asked about the plan for July output on Tuesday, said OPEC+ was doing its best to balance the oil market and needed to be mindful of rising demand.
Kazakhstan has been pumping hundreds of thousands of barrels over its OPEC+ target for months, a factor that has angered other OPEC+ members and helped sway a decision by the group to proceed with plans to hike output in April, sources said at the time.
OPEC+ wants it to compensate by making further cuts, but on Thursday Russia’s Interfax news agency cited Kazakhstan’s deputy energy minister as saying that the country has informed OPEC that it does not intend to reduce production.
Oil prices fell to a four-year low in April below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ said it was accelerating its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs raised concerns about global economic weakness. Since then prices have recovered to about $65.
OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, has made deep output cuts since 2022 to support the market. Eight members of the group have been increasing production since April to unwind some of those cuts.
Reporting by Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova, Maha El Dahan and Yousef Saba; writing by Alex Lawler; editing by Simon Webb and Jason Neely – Reuters
