Mkpoikana Udoma
Port Harcourt — Nigeria’s long-stalled oil production in Ogoniland may finally restart as the federal government’s reconciliation efforts in the Niger Delta begin to bear fruit.
The Society of Energy Editors described the development as “a watershed moment for Nigeria’s energy future,” in its Nigeria Energy Sector Outlook: Q4 2025.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration recently conferred State pardon and honours on the “Ogoni 9” and “Ogoni 4,” a symbolic gesture that has opened the door for dialogue with communities. The subsequent Ledum Mitee-led report now provides a roadmap for resuming operations.
“The Ogoni gateway opens,” the editors observed, “with a framework centred on community equity, environmental remediation, and local content.” High-level talks between IOCs, indigenous firms, and community leaders are already underway.
Stability in Rivers State has further boosted confidence. The expiration of the state of emergency on September 18 restored democratic institutions and reduced immediate political tensions.
“Rivers State normalizes,” the report noted, “creating a more predictable operating environment.”
However, risks remain. “Despite progress, pre-election jitters and the potential for targeted attacks by excluded groups persist,” the editors warned, estimating that 50,000–80,000 barrels per day could still be threatened.
If implemented successfully, the Ogoni framework could significantly boost Nigeria’s production. Output for Q4 is projected between 1.62–1.70 million barrels per day, tied directly to “the success of confidence-building in Ogoniland.”
“The Mitee Report is not just symbolic,” the editors concluded. “It could translate into signed MOUs and concrete investments that finally unlock reserves paralyzed for decades.”
