New York — U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report on Tuesday, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd.
Oil prices have rebounded from the historic lows seen last year, prompting some U.S. producers to boost drilling activity. The total U.S. rig count has more than doubled since falling to a record low in August last year.
The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before beginning to rise in November and December and throughout 2022.
For 2022, U.S. crude production is expected to average about 11.8 million bpd, a rise of 650,000 bpd, smaller than the previous forecast for a rise of 750,000 bpd.
Output hit an all-time annual high of 12.3 million bpd in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand and prices.
The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.58 million bpd to 19.70 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.52 million bpd.
U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 8.6 million bpd in the first half of 2021, up from 8.3 million bpd in the second half of 2020 but below the 9.3 million bpd in the second half of 2019, EIA said.
“Our latest estimates show that gasoline consumption in May through July was higher than we had previously expected. Growth in employment and increasing mobility have led to rising gasoline consumption so far in 2021,” the agency said.
Globally, consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is forecast to average 97.6 million bpd for all of 2021, a 5.3 million bpd increase from 2020.
The EIA forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.6 million bpd in 2022 to average 101.2 million bpd.
- Reuters (Reporting by Devika Krishna Kumar in New York; Editing by Marguerita Choy)