14 June 2013, News Wires – US crude output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day as soon as 2020 if global energy demand is strong, the US Energy Information Administration, EIA, said on Friday.
Driven by production strength in shale and tight oil, the EIA has generally predicted crude output as ranging between 6 million and 8 million bpd over the next 30 years.
“However, under greater supply assumptions, crude oil production is sustained at a higher level of about 10 million bpd between 2020 and 2040,” the EIA said in its report.
The agency’s analysis sees crude output reaching 9.7 million bpd in 2020, and 10.2 million bpd in 2040.
The US pumped 7.3 million bpd in the first week of June 2013, marking the first time in 16 years production surpassed imports.
Under similar assumptions overall US liquids production – including gas to liquids, natural gas liquids and so forth – could soar to even greater levels in the next 30 years.
Crude oil plus other liquids could sum as high as 16.2 milion bpd in 2020 and 18.2 million bpd by 2040.
Whether that demand will be realised, however, is still uncertain as the world continues to grapple with economic hard times and consumers in developed nations increase efficiency measures.