*44% of total demand
OpeOluwani Akintayo
14 July 2017, Sweetcrude, Lagos — The transportation sector will eat up most of the world’s oil by 2040 with an outstanding 44 percent, fresh data obtained by Sweetcrude Reports has shown.
According to data researched inside World Oil Outlook, (WOO), most of the oil consumed today and in the future will come from the road transportation sector.
In 2015, sectorial demand totaled 41.6 mb/d, which represented 45% of the overall demand.
Demand is expected to continue increasing and reach 47.8 mb/d in 2040. The relative weight of the sector in global demand is expected to remain roughly constant in the medium-term, before assuming a slow downward trend.
By 2040, the road transportation sector will represent 44% of total demand.
The ‘other industry’ sector, which primarily includes iron and steel, glass and cement production, construction and mining, is the second biggest contributor to oil demand.
In 2015, sectorial demand reached 12.6 mb/d, representing 14% of total demand.
As the world moves towards a more service oriented economy, future sectorial demand will grow at a slower pace than overall global demand.
In fact, the petrochemicals sector takes over as the second most important source of demand towards the end of the medium-term. In 2015, demand in this sector accounted for 11.9 mb/d and, by 2040, it is expected that it will reach 15.5 mb/d, according to the report.
The fourth sector in terms of oil demand is the residential/commercial/agriculture sector. In 2015, it accounted for 11% of total demand.
In the future, it is expected that this share will remain roughly constant. By 2040, sectorial demand will reach 12 mb/d.
Demand in the aviation sector, which totaled 5.8 mb/d in 2015, is expected to grow at healthy rates so the share that this sector represents in terms of total demand will increase from 6% to 8%. Demand in the marine bunkers sector and rail and domestic waterways is also expected to increase.
In contrast, demand in the electricity generation sector is set to remain approximately constant in the medium-term at around 5.3 mb/d, before declining in the long-term.
Over one-third (6.2 mb/d) of the total demand increase of 16.4 mb/d between 2015 and 2040 comes from the road transportation sector.
Strong growth is also foreseen in the petrochemicals sector (3.4 mb/d) with OPEC, Other Asia, China, and India accounting for most of the growth.
In Developing countries, demand in 2015 totaled 16.6 mb/d with China and OPEC accounting for a significant share. In Eurasia, 2 mb/d were consumed in the road transportation sector last year. Gasoline, including ethanol, was the most consumed product in this sector at 23.6 mb/d in 2015. Gasoil/diesel, including bio-diesel, follows with 17.1 mb/d. Finally, the use of LPG as fuel in the road transportation sector is rather marginal. In 2015, it represented only 2% of the total sectorial demand, WOO said.
