*Cuts non-OPEC supply by 95tb/d
OpeOluwani Akintayo
Lagos — The Organization of the Oil Producing Exporting Countries, OPEC, has forecast that in 2019, the global oil demand growth forecast remains at 1.14 mb/d, with expectations for global oil demand to reach 99.87 mb/d.
Inside its newly released Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, the group said by 2020, the initial forecast indicates the growth of around 1.14 mb/d year-on-year, as global oil demand is anticipated to surpass the 100 mb/d threshold on an annual basis, to average 101.01 mb/d for the year.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD is forecast to register a growth of 0.09 mb/d with the bulk of growth coming from OECD Americas, while the non-OECD region is expected to continue leading oil demand growth in 2020 with initial projections indicating an increase of around 1.05 mb/d, most of which is attributed to Asia and China, with a combined oil demand growth of 0.68 mb/d.
On world oil supply, OPEC says the non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2019 has been revised down by 95 tb/d to reach 2.05 mb/d y-oy, standing at 64.43 mb/d.
The downward revisions are mainly due to the extension of the voluntary production adjustments by participating oil-producing countries of the Declaration of Cooperation, as well as downward revisions for Brazil and Norway in 2Q19.
Other Asia is projected to be the largest contributor to incremental oil demand in 2020 is Asia, followed by China, which is forecast to be lower than in the current year.
The transportation sector is anticipated to lead growth on strong demand for motor and aviation fuels. Demand from the petrochemical sector will remain strong, although it will ease slightly in the US due to lower ethane cracking capacity additions.
OPEC says factors that could influence the pace of oil demand growth in 2020 include macroeconomic developments in major consuming countries, the displacements of heavy distillates with natural gas and other fuels, subsidy programmes and plans for their removal, the effect of commissioning/delays/closures of mega projects in the downstream and fuel efficiency programmes, especially in the transportation sector.
In 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 2.4 mb/d, averaging 66.87 mb/d.
The US, Brazil, Norway, and Canada are forecast to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico, Colombia, the UK, Indonesia, and Thailand are expected to see the largest declines.
OPEC NGL production is expected to grow by 0.07 mb/d in 2019 to average 4.84 mb/d, and is forecast to increase by 0.03 mb/d in 2020 to average 4.87 mb/d.
In June, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 68 tb/d to average 29.83 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
