Lagos — “Oil prices experienced a significant decline after three consecutive days of gains. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded its biggest drop since January, falling approximately 2.5%, partially affected by the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The report revealed an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories of 4.1 million barrels, bringing stockpiles to 427.9 million barrels. This buildup comes immediately after last week’s report showed the largest inventory surge since February 2024, with an additional 8.6 million barrels.
These figures suggest that supply is outpacing demand in the short term, exerting downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the decrease in gasoline inventories—down by 3.0 million barrels—and distillate products has provided slight support to the market, partially offsetting the negative effect of rising crude stockpiles. However, there was also a sharp drop in oil imports, which fell to 6.3 million barrels per day, down 606,000 from the previous week. If this trend continues, oil-exporting countries like Colombia could face challenges due to weaker external demand.
Beyond supply and demand dynamics, the inflationary outlook in the U.S. has also influenced market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation data reinforce expectations of a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, which could keep borrowing costs elevated and put additional pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.
Additionally, recent remarks from President Donald Trump regarding a potential negotiation with Russia to end the war in Ukraine have fueled speculation about a possible easing of restrictions on Russian oil producers. If this materializes, it would reduce supply risks from Russia and contribute to bearish pressure on crude prices.
In the medium term, the EIA raised its U.S. crude oil production estimate for 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day, adding another supply-side factor. In this context, oil prices remain under pressure, reflecting a mix of geopolitical developments, monetary policy adjustments, and growing signs of oversupply in the market.”
Analysis by Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist – Pepperstone
