Lagos — Natural gas is poised to reshape Africa’s economic future. Even as the global LNG market heads toward a period of oversupply, African demand is forecast to rise 60% by 2050, according to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook. Gas is the only fossil fuel expected to expand its share of global primary energy, and sub-Saharan Africa—home to more than 70% of the continent’s remaining recoverable resources—will drive that growth.
TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project is advancing despite regulatory hurdles.
For decades, Algeria, Egypt and Libya have dominated African gas output. But their share is set to fall below 40% by 2035 as new producers surge ahead. Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas,” Mozambique’s FLNG buildout, Tanzania’s long-awaited LNG framework, and Senegal-Mauritania’s cross-border hubs are establishing a new gas frontier. These emerging basins are increasingly underpinned by non-associated gas—resources not tied to oil production and therefore more flexible in pricing, commercialization and destination markets.
Gas offers two transformative pathways: export revenues and domestic industrialization. Sub-Saharan LNG exports have already expanded, supplying both Atlantic and Indian Ocean markets and acting as swing volumes during global disruptions. Adding Tanzania to the mix, African LNG supply could quadruple by 2050. Where domestic market obligations apply, export growth directly boosts local gas availability, supporting power generation targets like Senegal’s 3 GW gas-to-power plan.
At home, gas can electrify communities, power industry, fuel transport, and anchor fertilizer, petrochemical and metals processing sectors. Nigeria, Ghana, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire and others are scaling up gas-fired generation. Nations such as Angola and Nigeria have explicitly built gas industrialization into national policy, seeking to cut imports, strengthen local economies and build long-term energy security.
But unlocking Africa’s gas potential requires navigating four critical factors: competitive upstream economics, reliable market access, adequate infrastructure and bankable country risk. Many of Africa’s largest discoveries remain undeveloped—not for lack of resources, but because fiscal terms, demand certainty and infrastructure gaps have slowed progress. Governments must balance royalties, local content, domestic market rules and investor returns while creating stable, predictable regulatory frameworks that attract long-term capital.
A surplus global LNG market presents an unexpected opportunity. As prices moderate, buyers seek diverse, reliable suppliers—and Africa, if coordinated, can step into that role. But seizing it demands cooperation: scaling upstream projects, building pipelines and LNG capacity, ensuring transparent pricing, and aligning national priorities with investor needs.
If African nations collectively strengthen upstream scalability, midstream connectivity and downstream certainty, gas will not just surge—it will become a catalyst for economic transformation. Gas can power Africa’s industries, stabilize its grids, grow its export revenues and create a foundation for prosperity rooted in its own natural resources.
The continent holds both the opportunity and the responsibility to get this right. Gas is Africa’s bridge fuel—toward growth, jobs and lasting economic resilience.
*NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber
