Lagos — The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has placed global fertilizer supply chains under growing strain, disrupting production, exports and trade flows across nitrogen, phosphate and sulphur markets.
With the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly a third of global fertilizer trade, the near-closure of the route and attacks on regional energy infrastructure have created logistical bottlenecks, higher freight and insurance costs, and rising uncertainty among producers and traders.
Market activity has slowed as participants wait for greater clarity, with some producers expected to hold back offers for up to 10 days while assessing the evolving situation.
In a recent insight, Chris Vlachopoulos, Senior Editor for Phosphates at ICIS, notes that the disruption has already pushed urea prices up by as much as 35% to three-year highs, as buyers scramble to secure alternative supply after shipments from the Middle East were interrupted.
Tight global availability, combined with halted production at facilities such as QatarEnergy and existing supply pressures in countries including Iran, Russia and China, is amplifying market tension just as key agricultural regions approach fertilizer application season.
The uncertainty is also rippling across ammonia, sulphur and phosphates markets, where trade has slowed, prices are firming and logistical constraints are forcing buyers to seek alternative suppliers while freight costs and shipping risks continue to rise.
