Precious Anga
Lagos — The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected that Nigeria and other African countries will require about $92 billion in refining investments by 2050 to meet rising fuel demand, strengthen energy security and reduce reliance on imported petroleum products.
In its 2026 World Oil Outlook (WOO), OPEC identified Nigeria and Angola as the key drivers of Africa’s next phase of refining expansion, citing ongoing refinery projects and growing efforts across the continent to boost domestic processing capacity.
According to the report, Africa will need about $25 billion in downstream investments before 2030 and an additional $67 billion in refinery projects and capacity expansions after 2030. OPEC stated that Africa is expected to account for one of the largest shares of global refining investments beyond 2030.
“Asia-Pacific and Africa are likely to invest around $29 billion and $25 billion in the downstream sector in the medium term, respectively. In the period post-2030, global investment requirements for new refinery projects and expansions are evaluated at $423 billion. The largest share is expected in India and the Middle East, estimated at $73 billion each, followed by China and Africa, estimated at $69 billion and $67 billion, respectively,” OPEC said.
The organisation noted that many African countries are increasingly pursuing domestic refining projects to reduce dependence on imported fuels and improve energy security. It projected that the continent would add about 800,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in the medium term, largely through modular and small-scale refinery developments.
“In total, medium-term capacity additions in Africa are expected at around 0.8 mb/d, driven mostly by modular and small-scale capacity projects. Angola and Nigeria are expected to lead the expansions,” the report stated.
For Nigeria, OPEC said the country’s refining growth would be anchored by the fully operational Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the proposed 200,000 barrels-per-day Akwa Ibom refinery being developed by BUA Group, and several modular refinery projects.
“Nigeria is playing a key role in developing the region’s downstream sector. Following the Dangote refinery’s ramp-up to full operational capacity in February 2026, the country is set to see the 200 tb/d Akwa Ibom refinery, as well as several other small, modular units, coming online in the next few years,” OPEC noted.
The inclusion of BUA’s Akwa Ibom refinery in OPEC’s outlook suggests the project has reached an advanced stage of planning, financing and engineering, as the organisation said projects captured in its forecast are either under construction or nearing development.
OPEC also highlighted the transformational impact of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery on Africa’s downstream sector, describing it as the continent’s most significant greenfield refinery project in decades.
“The continent’s most prominent greenfield project over the past decade is the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, with a capacity of 650 tb/d, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world.
“The refinery reached its full design capacity in February 2026. It is the first refinery globally to achieve full nameplate capacity in a single-train configuration of this magnitude,” the report stated.
According to OPEC, the commissioning of the refinery increased Africa’s overall distillation capacity by 8.2 per cent compared to January 2025 and boosted the continent’s secondary refining capacity by 13.5 per cent.
“Overall, secondary capacity had increased by 13.5 per cent at the start of 2026, compared to January 2025, again due to the commissioning of the Dangote refinery,” OPEC added.
Despite the expected growth in refining capacity, the organisation warned that Africa would continue to face a refining deficit relative to its rising fuel demand, stressing that delays in planned projects could lead to tighter product markets and higher import volumes.
“It should be noted, however, that the continent’s overall refining capacity is expected to remain far below oil demand, as the region’s market is already under pressure,” OPEC said.
The organisation maintained that achieving Africa’s long-term goal of reducing dependence on imported refined products would require sustained infrastructure development, stronger financing frameworks, supportive policies, expanded capital markets, public-private partnerships and accelerated deployment of modular refineries.
“For Africa to realise its goal of increasing value from hydrocarbon resources and reduce its reliance on the importation of refined products, it will require significant infrastructure development, coordinated financing, policy support, expanded capital markets, improved private-public partnerships and large-scale development of modular refineries to fast-track deliveries,” the report stated.
