Cape Town, South Africa — Africa’s natural gas and LNG potential is a cornerstone of the continent’s energy future. According to the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) State of African Energy 2025 Outlook Report, Africa’s gas reserves could support a fourfold increase in LNG exports by 2040. Gas-to-power initiatives offer a vital solution to the continent’s electricity access challenges, while also providing a pathway to monetize underutilized gas resources. With the right investments and collaborative efforts, Africa is poised to unlock the full potential of its gas sector, driving economic growth and energy security.
Major Projects Driving Africa’s Gas Potential
Several large-scale projects are driving Africa’s gas potential, with LNG exports seen as a critical part of the continent’s energy future. Africa has the capacity to increase its LNG export capacity almost fourfold by 2040 – says the AEC’s report – with a projected 175 million tons of LNG per year. Currently, Africa’s LNG exports stand at around 40 million tons, suggesting massive room for growth.
Mozambique, a major growth driver for the continent’s LNG sector, has the potential to achieve LNG export capacity of up to 50 million tons by 2040, though this potential has been tempered by security concerns, particularly in onshore areas. These challenges have led companies to look toward smaller offshore floating LNG (FLNG) solutions. For example, the Eni’s Coral North FLNG project in Mozambique is being developed incrementally as an offshore solution, though it remains smaller in scale than the onshore alternatives. Other key projects include significant developments in Senegal and Mauritania. These nations are poised to become major LNG exporters, with developments such as the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project – co-led by bp and international partners – expected to play a pivotal role in the continent’s LNG growth, especially as it progresses to its second phase.
Risk Factors and Investment Outlook
While the path to realizing Africa’s gas and LNG potential presents challenges, there are significant opportunities for growth. As noted in the report, developing both domestic and export markets is crucial to fully unlocking the continent’s gas resources. Large-scale pipeline projects, such as the West African Gas Pipeline and Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, could play a vital role in connecting African gas to additional markets, including Europe. Although these projects face financing and political complexities, successful collaboration and strategic investments can pave the way for their advancement, unlocking new economic opportunities and expanding Africa’s energy reach.
Security remains one of the most significant risks, particularly in regions like Mozambique, where insurgencies have already disrupted major projects. While offshore FLNG projects, such as Coral North, provide a more flexible and secure option, they also come with higher capital costs and reduced production capacity compared to onshore facilities.
AEW 2025 to Highlight Growth Opportunities
Africa’s growing role in the global energy market, along with its proximity to key international markets, positions it as a critical player in the future of natural gas. The Chamber’s report emphasizes that Africa’s gas potential can be fully realized with the right investments, including de-risking strategies, improved regulatory frameworks and greater collaboration among governments, industry stakeholders and financiers.
This year’s African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies conference provides a vital platform for addressing challenges and opportunities within Africa’s gas and LNG sector, and discussing strategies for unlocking Africa’s full energy potential. With investment in gas and LNG projects continuing to grow, AEW 2025 offers a strategic opportunity to showcase the continent’s progress, identify investment gaps and promote collaboration among governments and the private sector to mitigate risks.
