18 October 2018, London — Analysts at Fitch Solutions forecast that the price of Brent Crude Oil will average $91 per barrel in 2022, a new report has revealed.
Brent is forecasted by the Fitch Solutions analysts to average $75 per barrel this year, $82 per barrel next year, $85 per barrel in 2020 and $89 per barrel in 2021, according to the report, which was sent to Rigzone.
These forecasts were notably higher than the Bloomberg consensus for Brent, which forecasts the commodity to average $73.6 per barrel in 2018, $75.3 per barrel in 2019, $72 per barrel in 2020, $70 per barrel in 2021 and $66.2 per barrel in 2022.
Analysts at Fitch Solutions forecast that the average price of WTI will hit $68 per barrel this year, $75 per barrel next year, $81 per barrel in 2020, $85 per barrel in 2021 and $87 per barrel in 2022.
The Bloomberg consensus for WTI forecasts the commodity to average $68 per barrel in 2018, $68.9 per barrel in 2019, $65.4 per barrel in 2020, $63.5 per barrel in 2021 and $62.3 per barrel in 2022.
“The outlook on Brent is broadly bullish, driven by rising constraints on the supply side. Loss of exports from Iran, low inventories, limited spare capacity and continued under-investment in the sector will drive the market into deficit from 2019,” analysts at Fitch Solutions said in the report.
“That said, we note rising risks to demand, as emerging markets start to feel the pain of a stronger dollar, tighter liquidity, higher oil prices, and rising protectionism,” the analysts added.
In the report, Fitch Solutions said the United States will be the dominant growth market over 2019 and 2020, “adding around twice the number of barrels as Saudi Arabia”, according to its data.
“Various bottlenecks have emerged in the Permian basin this year. In particular, insufficient takeaway capacity has put sustained downward pressure on regional price spreads, crimping investment and production. However, rapid pipeline expansions will erase this bottleneck from Q219,” Fitch Solutions analysts said.
Fitch Solutions also stated that, on paper, Saudi Arabia has sufficient capacity to keep the market in balance.
“The costs involved in bringing its full capacity online, though, would likely outweigh the benefits, not least due to the high capital requirements and uncertain demand outlook,” the analysts said.
*Andreas Exarheas – Rigzone
