China’s fuel export ban to further tighten Asia supply

Even before the ban, Asian refiners were scrambling to secure alternative crude shipments while ‌several refineries in the Gulf, many of which ship fuel to Asia, have shut since the war halted shipping via the critical Strait of Hormuz route.

China, the world’s top oil importer, last week banned fuel exports until at least the end of March, in an attempt to pre-empt domestic shortages, sources said, curbing exports that last year totalled $22 billion.

Australia, Bangladesh and the Philippines are especially reliant on Chinese fuel supply and will have to ​cover their needs elsewhere.

China is Asia’s No. 4 exporter of so-called clean fuels after South Korea, India and Singapore.

It is also home to the world’s largest refining sector ​and is known as a swing supplier, with exports picking up when local demand dips and export margins are attractive.

“The remaining Asian exporters simply do not have the spare volumes to replicate ​China’s role as the region’s swing supplier,” Kpler analyst Zameer Yusof wrote.

“As a result, Singapore cracks will likely continue grinding higher in the near term as the market adjusts via replacement barrels ​or outright demand destruction,” he said, referring to benchmark refining margins in the Asian hub.

Diesel derivative prices in Asia surged to $150 a barrel on March 17 while jet fuel swaps were at $163 a barrel, soaring from around $92 before the war, LSEG data showed. Gasoline traded at $139.80 per barrel on Monday, up from $79.30 on February 27.

BIG BUYERS

China supplied about a third of Australia’s jet fuel last year and about half for the Philippines ​and Bangladesh in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare to cut flights in April due to the risk of shortages posed by fuel export bans.

China’s Ministry Of Foreign Affairs, responding ​to questions about Vietnam’s plan, said on Monday that military action in the Middle East should stop and that Beijing was willing to cooperate with countries on energy security.

Chinese state firms PetroChina and Unipec supply ‌fuel to ⁠Bangladesh, although such cargoes can be delivered from wherever is economical. Bangladesh sent a letter to the Chinese embassy seeking assurance on its contracted volumes, a minister told Reuters.

“I hope they will continue their supplies in this critical time,” said Aninda Islam Amit, Bangladesh’s state minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.

Australia’s transport minister said on Monday that airlines Qantas and Virgin were well placed to withstand war-related fuel disruption and there were no short-term supply issues.

FURTHER REGIONAL CURBS

In addition to China, Thailand has banned most exports of refined fuel and heavyweight South Korea has limited exports ​to last year’s levels and said it ​was considering further curbs.

Priti Mehta, senior research ⁠analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said last week that refiners in India and Japan were also becoming reluctant to issue export tenders.

With several Asian refiners cutting output, the war could force up to 6 million barrels per day of crude run cuts across Asia, WoodMac said.

To be sure, ​Singapore inventories of light distillates, including gasoline and naphtha, remain 19% above year-ago levels and refiners in top regional exporter India and ​elsewhere are likely to step ⁠up sales to Asia to profit from rising prices.

“More of India’s transport fuel exports will divert towards Asia instead of the West such as Europe and the Americas,” said Vortexa’s head of Asia-Pacific analysis Ivan Mathews.

“More product exports from the Red Sea are likely to head towards Asia as well,” he said.

But even before China’s move, ExxonMobil had chartered up to three shipments of gasoline from the ⁠U.S. Gulf Coast ​to Australia for arrival in late April, an unusual and expensive routing that underscores the impact of the ​war’s disruption.