Lagos — The global hydrogen economy is evolving and is entering a new inflection point in 2026 amid shifting market realities, changing policy landscapes, and critical execution challenges. As of February 2026, active low-carbon hydrogen capacity stood at around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), with over 460 projects in operation, compared to 104 in 2020. Despite the progress, the low-carbon hydrogen additions are constrained by demand uncertainty and limited investment, says GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence report, “Hydrogen in Oil and Gas,” reveals that global hydrogen production capacity could reach 82.3 mtpa by 2030, taking into account the active under development projects. Currently, only about 2% of this capacity comes from projects that are currently operational. Another 26% comes from plants in an advanced stage of development, which have a higher likelihood of completion before 2030. The remaining capacity is tied to projects that are still in early development, with around 57% of the capacity currently under the feasibility stage.
Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Despite an impressive increase in count of active low-carbon hydrogen projects, capacity additions remain far below the levels needed to meet the near-term targets set by the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario.”
The current hydrogen development landscape is characterized by a notable scarcity of large-scale projects. Only ten of the 2,335 upcoming projects worldwide have capacities exceeding 1 mtpa and a handful of others surpass the 0.5 mtpa mark. Among these ten high-capacity projects, nine are for green hydrogen, and one is intended to produce blue hydrogen.
Puranik continues: “Despite accounting for the bulk of the project numbers, the cumulative capacity of green hydrogen initiatives remains relatively modest. Thus, their output is not large enough to displace established energy sources, such as natural gas or utility-scale renewables. Developers face significant challenges in scaling up, including overcoming infrastructure constraints, securing long-term offtake agreements, and ensuring financial viability. Until more large-scale progress through the development pipeline, hydrogen’s share in the global energy mix will likely remain constrained.”
Among oil and gas majors, BP leads in green hydrogen, with nearly 3 mtpa of active and upcoming capacity anchored by flagship projects in Mauritania, Australia, and across Europe. TotalEnergies also has deepened its focus on green hydrogen projects, alongside industrial gas leaders like Air Liquide and Air Products. Meanwhile, Shell and Equinor are expected to lead in blue hydrogen capacity by 2030.
Puranik concludes: “Looking ahead to 2030, global low-carbon hydrogen capacity is expected to expand once demand picks up, backed by increased private investment and supportive policy frameworks, as it is a critical energy source to achieve corporate net-zero commitments. Nevertheless, achieving these ambitions will require overcoming persistent financial, regulatory, and infrastructure barriers in the near term to ensure that project announcements translate into operational capacity by the end of the decade.” growth.
