Houston — U.S. oil production is poised to set a larger record this year than prior estimates, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, but it maintained its estimate for demand growth.
The EIA said it now expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its prior estimate of 13.55 million bpd.
The agency held its estimate for U.S. consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels steady at 20.5 million bpd in 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to maximize U.S. oil production even as energy executives have insisted on prioritizing capital discipline.
While Brent crude prices are expected to average around $74 in 2025, they will fall to about $66 in 2026, the agency said, predicting gradual increases in production combined with relatively weak global demand growth.
OPEC+ production cuts will reduce global oil inventories and keep crude oil prices near current levels through the first quarter of 2025, the EIA said.
Global liquid fuels production is set to rise by 1.7 million bpd in 2025, with about 100,000 bpd from OPEC+ producers. The group will increase production by 600,000 bpd in 2026 as they unwind voluntary production cuts, but will remain at levels below their targets in an effort to limit increases in global oil inventories, EIA said.
Output growth outside of OPEC+ will be driven by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana through 2026.
Global liquid fuels consumption will rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, led by India and China, EIA said. However, the anticipated growth continues to be slower than the pre-pandemic trend, the EIA said.
Any future imposition of tariffs by Trump on Canada and Mexico is not presently anticipated to significantly affect global oil supply, EIA said, adding that the tariffs and new U.S. sanctions on Russia were sources of uncertainty for oil prices going forward.
U.S. refinery utilization will remain relatively high and net U.S. fuel exports will decrease to meet domestic fuel demand due to the closure of two U.S. refineries, the EIA said.
Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Editing by Mark Porter and David Gregorio – Reuters
