Precious Anga
Lagos — Global coal demand is expected to hit a record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026 as disruptions to LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz force major economies to increase their reliance on coal-fired power generation.
The International Energy Agency disclosed this in its Coal Mid-Year Update 2026 released on Thursday, saying coal demand is now projected to rise by 1.2 per cent this year.
Before the Middle East crisis, global coal consumption had been expected to decline slightly in 2026. However, the disruption to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has driven gas and LNG prices higher, prompting electricity markets to increase coal-fired generation.
The IEA said China, India, Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe are among the markets turning more heavily to coal-fired capacity as expensive and constrained LNG supplies put pressure on their power systems.
“Although shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz do not directly affect coal markets, tighter natural gas supply has pushed up prices, prompting some electricity systems to switch from gas to coal,” the agency said.
The disruption has had a particularly strong impact on the outlook for China and India, the world’s two largest coal consumers. Chinese coal demand is projected to increase by 1 per cent to 5 billion tonnes in 2026, while India’s is expected to rise by 4.2 per cent to 1.353 billion tonnes.
The IEA said the Middle East is not a major coal-exporting region, meaning the war did not directly disrupt global coal shipments. Instead, the sharp reduction in LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz created a major shift in the economics of electricity generation.
The agency also attributed part of the change in its 2026 coal demand forecast to an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern, alongside the continuing energy supply disruption linked to the Middle East crisis.
The outlook could worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to LNG shipments into 2027, with the IEA warning that prolonged disruption could push global coal demand to another record high.
The latest forecast highlights how disruption in one major energy supply route can quickly alter fuel choices in electricity markets, with higher LNG prices driving additional demand for coal despite the earlier expectation of a decline in global coal consumption.
