Lagos — Gold prices continue to attract persistent buying, trading near $2938 on Wednesday, amid global concerns pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold is always seen as a haven in times of economic and geopolitical tensions, and currently, it seems to me that several intertwined factors are influencing gold price movements, including expectations surrounding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as well as geopolitical developments related to the trade war and tensions between major powers.
I believe that, although gold has remained close to its all-time highs recently, traders are staying cautiously on the sidelines, waiting for the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. This event is pivotal as it could provide further clarity regarding future monetary policy direction, which will directly impact the movements of the US dollar and, consequently, the path of gold. So far, there has been no strong inclination for traders to take strong positions in either the bullish or bearish direction for gold, reflecting a cautious market awaiting clearer guidance on the Fed’s next steps.
On the other hand, the expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve put USD bulls on the defensive. Typically, interest rate cuts reduce the attractiveness of returns on the US dollar, thus enhancing gold’s appeal as an alternative investment. Therefore, expectations of monetary easing mean the US dollar may face pressure, opening the door for gold to move upward. These movements help explain why gold remains in a strong position amidst these economic and geopolitical concerns.
Concerns surrounding the trade war between the US and China, along with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, in my opinion, add another layer of support to gold prices. With the potential for the trade war between the world’s two largest economies to worsen, the market is shifting toward safe-haven assets, with gold at the forefront. While markets remain uncertain about the depth of the impact of this war on the global economy, forecasts suggest that an escalation could put pressure on financial markets and enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge.
It is also important to note that the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy further supports gold. Recent economic figures, such as disappointing US retail sales data, suggest the US economy might be slowing down. These figures, along with mixed signals on inflation, open the door for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates at upcoming meetings in September or October this year. Such bets on a rate cut could reduce the strength of the US dollar, further enhancing gold’s appeal as an investment unlinked to interest rates.
Therefore, I believe comments from Federal Reserve officials, such as those from Mary Daly, the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, are important indicators of future monetary policy trends. Daly emphasized the importance of keeping short-term interest rates at current levels until progress towards the 2% inflation target becomes clearer. These comments suggest that the US central bank may not rush to hike interest rates quickly, leaving room for gold to benefit from any decline in the value of the US dollar.
Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the FOMC meeting minutes today, where Federal Reserve officials expressed caution about inflation amidst continued increases in the consumer price index. Although real yields on US bonds have slightly risen, which could pressure gold, the increasing demand for safe-haven assets supports the upward trend for the precious metal. As such, all eyes are on the upcoming monetary policy decisions and their potential impact on markets, with financial market expectations pointing to the possibility of a 39 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2025, which could enhance gold’s long-term gains.
Therefore, I expect that any corrective pullback in gold prices could be seen as a buying opportunity. The fact that gold remains close to its all-time highs suggests strong support in the gold markets, and the overall trend appears likely to remain upward. Given the expected weakness in the US dollar and continued trade and geopolitical concerns, I expect gold to maintain its strong position shortly. Traders and investors in the gold markets may choose to wait for the FOMC meeting minutes to gain clear signals on the Fed’s next steps, as this will have a significant impact on future gold movements.
In conclusion, gold will remain in a strong position, supported by both expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and ongoing concerns about global trade escalation. While the market remains on edge for what the FOMC meeting minutes will reveal, current movements indicate that gold may continue its upward trajectory if these factors persist in influencing the markets.
*Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com – MENA
