News wire — Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 average Brent forecast to $77 per barrel from $82, adding that higher oil inventories and sluggish demand from China are expected to impact the market negatively.The bank has also cut its 2025 Brent price forecast range by $5 per barrel to $70-$85.
“The risks to our $70-85 range skew to the downside given high spare capacity, potential trade tensions, and the possibility that OPEC may fully reverse the extra cuts in 2025,” it said in a note.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia – known as OPEC+ – have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market, most of which are in place until the end of 2025. On Aug. 1, OPEC+ confirmed a plan to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from October, with the caveat that it could be paused or reversed if needed.
OPEC in a monthly report forecast world oil demand would rise by 2.11 million bpd in 2024, down from growth of 2.25 million bpd expected last month.
Last week, Morgan Stanley lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, mainly due to China’s slower economic growth, increased electric vehicle usage there, and a rise in the number of trucks in China powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2024 and 2025 average prices per barrel for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel):
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | ||
2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
Goldman Sachs | $82 | $77 | $78 | $72 | Aug. 27 |
Citi Research | $80 | $60 | $76 | $57 | Aug. 25 |
DNB | $82 | $77 | – | – | Aug. 20 |
Barclays | $87 | $90 | $83 | $86 | June. 27 |
BMI | $85 | $82 | $82 | $79 | Aug. 22 |
Morgan Stanley | $75 | $71 | – | Jan. 3 | |
JP Morgan | $83 | $75 | $79 | $71 | Aug. 1 |
* indicates end-of-period forecast
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
** JPMorgan 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts were introduced in Nov, 2023.
Reporting by Bengaluru Commodities desk; Editing by Mark Potter
