01 December 2018, News Wires — Crude oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, according to a Reuters survey published on Friday.
OPEC and its partners meet on Dec. 6-7 in Vienna to discuss cutting output for 2019, just months after agreeing to pump more oil. For now, OPEC is seeking to reach 100 percent compliance with supply cuts that took effect in January 2017, after months of underproduction by countries including Venezuela and Angola.
The November survey indicates that output from the 12 OPEC members with supply reduction targets under the deal fell by 110,000 bpd compared with October, while total OPEC output has fallen by 160,000 bpd.
Compared with levels from which they agreed to cut, which in most cases was October 2016 output, the 12 members as a group have reduced production by 1.408 million bpd. Given the pledged nreductions total 1.176 million bpd, that equates to 120 percent compliance, compared with a revised 110 percent in October.
October’s total was revised lower by 40,000 bpd due to adjustments in UAE and Kuwaiti output.
Nov. Oct. Baseline Pledged Cut Compliance Implied
output output for cut cut achieved (pct) 2018 target
Algeria 1.06 1.06 1.089 50,000 29,000 58 1.039
Angola 1.51 1.53 1.751 78,000 241,000 309 1.673
Ecuador 0.52 0.53 0.548 26,000 28,000 108 0.522
Equatorial Guinea^ 0.12 0.12 0.19 12,000 70,000 583 0.178
Gabon 0.2 0.19 0.202 9,000 2,000 22 0.193
Iran** 2.85 3.35 3.707 -90,000 857,000 n/a 3.797
Iraq 4.55 4.65 4.561 210,000 11,000 5 4.351
Kuwait 2.75 2.73 (R) 2.838 131,000 88,000 67 2.707
Qatar 0.61 0.60 0.648 30,000 38,000 127 0.618
Saudi Arabia 11 10.65 10.544 486,000 -456,000 negative 10.058
UAE 3.35 3.27 (R) 3.013 139,000 -337,000 negative 2.874
Venezuela 1.23 1.18 2.067 95,000 837,000 881 1.972
TOTAL OPEC 12 29.75 29.86(R) 31.158 1,176,000 1,408,000 120 29.982
Libya 1.2 1.22 1
Nigeria 1.84 1.88 1.8
TOTAL OPEC 14 32.79 32.96 (R) 32.782***
Congo^^ 0.32 0.31
TOTAL OPEC 15 33.11 33.27(R)
* Compliance is calculated by the following method in the
table above:
Baseline for cut minus November output = cut achieved
Cut achieved divided by pledged cut = percentage compliance
** Iran is allowed a small increase in the deal.
*** OPEC 2018 implied target based on the 32.50 million bpd
ceiling OPEC announced on Nov. 30, 2016, minus Indonesia, and
using Libya and Nigeria's figures for their expected 2018
production as given at Nov. 30, 2017 meeting.
^ OPEC in June 2018 published a production target for
Equatorial Guinea. Reuters has used this target (178,000 bpd)
and pledged cut given by an OPEC delegate (12,000 bpd) to
calculate a supply cut baseline of 190,000 bpd.
^^ Congo joined OPEC in June 2018. No production target was
disclosed.
The Reuters survey aims to assess crude supply to market,
defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage.
Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes the Neutral Zone.
Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil. Nigerian
output includes the Agbami stream and excludes Akpo condensate.- Reuters
