– As Trump weighs further sanctions rollback, new data shows
Berlin — New analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), published today by Urgewald, shows Russia has earned an estimated €6 billion from fossil fuel exports since Israeli and US strikes on Iran began on 28 February.
CREA found Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues averaged €510 million per day in the week following the strikes, 14 per cent higher than February’s daily average. Urgewald is publishing the figures today as the Trump administration considers easing further sanctions on Russian oil.
Additionally, Urgewald analysis shows that at €510 million per day, Russia’s fossil fuel earnings would be enough to buy approximately 17,000 Shahed 136 attack drones every 24 hours, based on a commonly cited estimate of $35,000 per drone. Even at $50,000 per drone, that would still fund nearly 12,000 drones per day.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last Friday issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil already at sea, a short-term measure he said would have only a modest impact on Russia’s revenues. The move comes as Trump weighs a broader rollback of Russian oil sanctions amid energy market turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict — a topic Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin also discussed in their first telephone call of the year, alongside Ukraine and energy.
The timing is stark. Russia’s fossil fuel revenues are surging amid the same market turbulence that is now prompting Washington to consider easing sanctions.
Urgewald warned that easing sanctions would hand Russia a significant financial windfall. Sanctions have forced Russian oil to sell at a steep discount, shut Moscow out of access to Western services and markets, and driven exports toward a select group of buyers such as India that can force down the price. A rollback would allow Russia to close that discount, regain access to a wider range of higher-paying markets, and substantially boost export revenues. Not by producing more oil, but simply by selling the same oil for a better price.
This is not a trade-off between Ukraine and energy prices. It is a trade-off between Ukraine and nothing.
Alexander Kirk, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald, said: “Russia is already profiting from this geopolitical crisis. In the week after the strikes on Iran began, Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues rose to €510 million per day, 14 per cent higher than February’s average.
“That is the reality of fossil fuel geopolitics. When markets panic, authoritarian exporters cash in. In less than two weeks, Russia has earned an estimated €6 billion from fossil fuel exports, money that ultimately feeds the Kremlin’s war machine.
“Easing sanctions now would not stabilise markets. What it would do is allow Russia to sell the same oil for a far better price. US sanctions have forced Russian crude to trade at a steep discount. A rollback closes that gap overnight and hands the Kremlin a revenue boost worth billions, at the very moment that pressure is starting to bite.”
“This is a political choice. Governments can hold the line on sanctions, or they can signal that if energy prices rise high enough, the West will always find a reason to blink. That choice will not just prolong Ukrainian suffering. It will undermine the security of Europe as a whole.”
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Reuters on 6 March that returning to Russian gas would be “economically and politically wrong”, even amid current LNG market turbulence. The same logic applies to Russian oil sanctions.
Urgewald is calling on the United States and European governments to uphold the existing sanctions framework, reject any waivers or exemptions, and urgently close the remaining loopholes.
