News wire — U.S. power consumption will rise to record highs in 2024 and 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected power demand will rise to 4,123 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024 and 4,198 billion kWh in 2025.
That compares with 4,000 billion kWh in 2023 and a record 4,067 billion kWh in 2022.
With growing demand from artificial intelligence and data centers and as homes and businesses use more electricity for heat and transportation, EIA forecast 2024 power sales would rise to 1,504 billion kWh for residential consumers, 1,418 billion kWh for commercial customers and 1,052 billion kWh for industrial customers.
That compares with all-time highs of 1,509 billion kWh for residential consumers in 2022, 1,391 billion kWh in 2022 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrial customers.
EIA said natural gas’ share of power generation would ease from 42% in 2023 to 41% in 2024 and 40% in 2025. Coal’s share will hold at 17% in 2024, the same as 2023, before easing to 16% in 2025 as renewable output rises.
The percentage of renewable generation will rise from 21% in 2023 to 23% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, while nuclear power’s share will hold at 19% in 2024 and 2025, the same as 2023.
Although the use of coal to generate power has been falling for years versus gas primarily because gas produces less carbon dioxide and other emissions than coal, EIA projected higher gas prices would boost the amount of coal used to generate power in the second half of 2024.
“Utilities will look for a more economical alternative as natural gas prices go up,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement.
“We expect renewables, especially solar, to fill most of the gap in the power mix. We expect utilities will also look to coal as a less expensive fuel source the rest of the year.”
EIA projected 2024 gas sales would hold at 12.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for residential consumers, rise to 9.30 bcfd for commercial customers and 35.7 bcfd for power generation, and slide to 23.1 bcfd for industrial customers.
That compares with all-time highs of 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.6 bcfd in 2019 for commercial customers, 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers and 35.4 bcfd in 2023 for power generation.
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Richard Chang – Reuters
