Newswire — Expectations that Venezuela could quickly rebound to historic output near 3 MMbpd are running into hard infrastructure and capital barriers, according to commentary from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and Rystad Energy. ANZ analysts said the country’s aging well stock and processing network will require billions in spending, while Rystad’s independent numbers show that only modest volumes can be restored rapidly without a long, multi-year investment program beginning in 2026.
ANZ strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote that normal project cycles of one to five years from appraisal to final investment decision are likely to be longer in Venezuela. They see little chance that increased producer spending would affect supply before the end of the decade. The bank added that maintaining current output around 1.0–1.1 MMbpd would already demand more than the industry standard of roughly $5.5 billion per year, leaving investors exposed to continued civil unrest and policy uncertainty.
Rystad Energy mapped the constraint in greater detail, estimating about $53 billion over the next 15 years is needed simply to keep production flat. The firm said only 300,000–350,000 bpd could be added quickly with limited spend, and growth beyond 1.4 MMbpd would require sustained commitments to pipelines and upgraders. A full return to 3 MMbpd by 2040 would call for roughly $183 billion in cumulative oil and gas CAPEX from 2026, translating into about $156 billion of service purchases once governance reforms restore confidence.
Energy shares rallied after the dramatic removal of leader Nicolás Maduro, but both analyst teams warned that sentiment alone will not move barrels. ANZ said producers and traders would wait for a proper legal and fiscal framework before committing to long campaigns with PDVSA and partners. Rystad echoed that view, describing geology as secondary to institutions and liquidity in shaping 2026 and 2027 planning cycles.
Experts from ANZ and Rystad said markets should plan for delayed Venezuela recovery through 2026, with infrastructure repair remaining the central gating factor for any path back to historic production. Investors should also brace for the possibility of continued political instability in Venezuela with significant civil unrest and sustained U.S. sanctions on the country.
