The fall in exporting revenues may exacerbate Russia’s budget deficit, already 117% of the annual plan due to heavy outlays to support Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine and Western sanctions on its oil and gas exports.
According to Reuters calculations, Russia’s piped gas exports to Europe reached around 12.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) for the first half of 2023, while they totalled 62 bcm for the whole of 2022, indicating a potentially serious slump this year.
Gazprom has not provided forecasts for gas exports this year and has not replied to a request for comment.
Ronald Smith, a seasoned analyst at Moscow-based BCS brokerage, expects Russian gas prices in Europe to average $445 per 1,000 cubic metres this year. That’s down from $830 as estimated by Economy Ministry for 2022.
He forecasts Russian gas exports to Europe and Turkey will reach 50 bcm this year.
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