OpeOluwani Akintayo
03 January 2018, Sweetcrude, Lagos — The Orgnaisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has said world oil demand for 2018 is expected to grow by 1.51 million barrels.
The forecast was published in its December Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR.
According to the report, in 2018, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD will contribute positively to oil demand growth, adding some 0.28 mb/d, whereas the bulk of the growth will come from the non-OECD with 1.23 mb/d of potential growth.
OECD is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 35 member countries, founded in 1960 to stimulate economic progress and world trade.
Its members include countries like the United States, France, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, Japan, Denmark, Israel, and others.
OPEC had forecasted that global oil demand would grow at around 1.53 mb/d in 2017, with China leading oil demand growth in the non-OECD, followed by other Asia – which includes India, and OECD Americas.
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2018.
US growth was revised up in 2018 to 2.5%, while growth in the Euro-zone remains unchanged at 2.1 percent in 2018.
Japan’s growth in 2018 expectations has been lifted to 1.4%.
India’s soft third quarter Gross Domestic Product, GDP growth in 2018 remains unchanged at 7.4%, while China is seen growing at 6.5% in 2018.
World oil demand growth was estimated to have reached 1.53 mb/d in 2017, well above the initial forecast and maintained the consistently healthy growth seen over the last three years.
OECD Europe contributed most of the upward revisions, due to solid progress in the industrial sector in addition to strong transportation demand.
In non-OECD, China oil demand growth was robust in 2017 as the petrochemical and the transportation sectors expanded at a healthy pace and the overall economic activities improved from initial expectations.
For 2018, the main assumptions behind the forecast are firm economic growth, lending support to industrial and construction fuels in both OECD and non-OECD.
Expansion in the transportation sector is expected to provide the bulk of oil demand growth.
OPEC said growth in petrochemical demand, is projected to be one of the fastest-growing contributors in the US, China, South Korea and the Middle East.
As such, world oil demand growth is estimated at 1.51 mb/d in 2018, compared to 1.26 mb/d in the initial forecast.
