Reuters compared each agency’s initial oil demand projection in a given year, usually made in the monthly report in the June or July before the year in question, with the figure given in the December of the year in question. For example, for 2008 demand, the figure given in July 2007 was compared to the figure given in December 2008.
Comparing the initial forecast with the end-year forecast will show whether the first forecast was over- or under-estimated, and which agency made the biggest revision in per-barrel terms.
All figures are in millions of barrels per day.
Number of years demand since 2008 was | Underestimated | Overestimated | |||
OPEC | 8 | 8 | |||
IEA | 9 | 7 | |||
Times | |||||
Made biggest revision since 2008 | |||||
IEA | 7 | ||||
OPEC | 7 | ||||
Both made similar revisions | 2 | ||||
Source | Initial forecast | End-year figure | Change vs initial | Biggest revision by | Initial forecast was |
2008 | |||||
Jul-07 | Dec-08 | ||||
OPEC | 86.94 | 85.83 | -1.1 | overestimated | |
IEA | 88.2 | 85.8 | -2.4 | IEA | overestimated |
2009 | |||||
Jul-08 | Dec-09 | ||||
OPEC | 87.71 | 84.31 | -3.4 | OPEC | overestimated |
IEA | 87.7 | 84.9 | -2.8 | overestimated | |
2010 | |||||
Jul-09 | Dec-10 | ||||
OPEC | 84.3 | 85.93 | 1.63 | underestimated | |
IEA | 85.2 | 87.4 | 2.2 | IEA | underestimated |
2011 | |||||
Jul-10 | Dec-11 | ||||
OPEC | 86.4 | 87.8 | 1.4 | OPEC | underestimated |
IEA | 87.8 | 89 | 1.2 | underestimated | |
2012 | |||||
Jul-11 | Dec-12 | ||||
OPEC | 89.5 | 88.8 | -0.7 | overestimated | |
IEA | 91 | 89.7 | -1.3 | IEA | overestimated |
2013 | |||||
Jul-12 | Dec-13 | ||||
OPEC | 89.5 | 89.79 | 0.29 | Draw | underestimated |
IEA | 90.9 | 91.2 | 0.3 | underestimated | |
2014 | |||||
Jul-13 | Dec-14 | ||||
OPEC | 90.7 | 91.13 | 0.43 | Draw | underestimated |
IEA | 92 | 92.4 | 0.4 | underestimated | |
2015 | |||||
Jul-14 | Dec-15 | ||||
OPEC | 92.3 | 92.88 | 0.58 | OPEC | underestimated |
IEA | 94.1 | 94.6 | 0.5 | underestimated | |
2016 | |||||
Jul-15 | Dec-16 | ||||
OPEC | 93.94 | 94.41 | 0.47 | underestimated | |
IEA | 95.2 | 96.3 | 1.1 | IEA | underestimated |
2017 | |||||
Jul-16 | Dec-17 | ||||
OPEC | 95.3 | 96.94 | 1.64 | OPEC | underestimated |
Jun-16 | |||||
IEA | 97.4 | 97.8 | 0.4 | underestimated | |
2018 | |||||
Jul-17 | Dec-18 | ||||
OPEC | 97.6 | 98.79 | 1.19 | OPEC | underestimated |
Jun-17 | |||||
IEA | 99.3 | 99.2 | -0.1 | overestimated | |
2019 | |||||
Jul-18 | Dec-19 | ||||
OPEC | 100 | 99.8 | -0.2 | overestimated | |
Jun-18 | |||||
IEA | 100.6 | 100.2 | -0.4 | IEA | overestimated |
2020 | |||||
Jul-19 | Dec-20 | ||||
OPEC | 101.01 | 89.99 | -11.02 | OPEC | overestimated |
Jun-19 | |||||
IEA | 101.7 | 91.2 | -10.5 | overestimated | |
2021 | |||||
Jul-20 | Dec-21 | ||||
OPEC | 97.7 | 96.63 | -1.07 | overestimated | |
Jun-20 | |||||
IEA | 97.4 | 96.2 | -1.2 | IEA | overestimated |
2022 | |||||
Jul-21 | Dec-22 | ||||
OPEC | 99.86 | 99.56 | -0.3 | overestimated | |
Jun-21 | |||||
IEA | 99.5 | 99.9 | 0.4 | IEA | underestimated |
2023 | |||||
Jul-22 | Dec-23 | ||||
OPEC | 103 | 102.1 | -0.9 | OPEC | overestimated |
Jun-22 | |||||
IEA | 101.6 | 101.7 | 0.1 | underestimated |
Compiled by Nerijus Adomaitis, editing by Simon Webb and Barbara Lewis – Reuters