Precious Anga
Lagos — The International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, has said renewable energy must account for about 78 per cent of global electricity generation by 2035 if the world is to accelerate electrification and meet rising energy demand while reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
IRENA made the projection under its revised 1.5°C Scenario, which calls for a major transformation of global electricity systems over the next decade.
Electricity currently accounts for about 23 per cent of global final energy consumption. However, the agency projects this share will rise to 35 per cent by 2035 and exceed 50 per cent by 2050 as electrification expands across buildings, transport and industry.
“With the rising energy demand, electrification with renewables will be central for end-use sectors such as buildings, transport, and industry,” IRENA stated.
Renewables accounted for 31.7 per cent of global electricity generation in 2024, producing 9,836 terawatt-hours, TWh.
To meet most of the additional electricity demand expected over the coming years, IRENA said the renewable share would need to increase to around 78 per cent by 2035, representing about 2.5 times the current level.
The agency also identified electrification and energy efficiency as major tools for cutting emissions, estimating that both could deliver about one-third of cumulative carbon dioxide reductions between 2026 and 2050.
However, the pace of electrification is expected to differ across major sectors.
Buildings could reach 55 per cent electrification by 2035, supported by technologies such as heat pumps, electric cooking and cooling. Industry is projected to reach about 35 per cent, while transport could increase sharply from about one per cent currently to 15 per cent.
For developing economies, including countries across Africa, IRENA’s projections highlight the importance of investment in electricity generation alongside the infrastructure required to deliver power to consumers.
Grid capacity remains a major global constraint. IRENA estimates that about 2,500 gigawatts of projects are currently awaiting grid connections, underlining the scale of investment required in transmission, distribution, storage and other forms of system flexibility.
The agency said annual investment in grids and flexibility would need to more than double from about $500 billion in 2025 to approximately $1 trillion through 2035, before increasing further to $1.2 trillion thereafter.
The scale of investment required reflects the growing gap between planned renewable generation and the infrastructure available to connect and distribute the electricity.
The incoming COP31 Presidency of Türkiye has announced a global target of 35 per cent electrification of final energy demand by 2035, drawing on IRENA’s roadmap.
IRENA, however, stressed that countries would need to develop pathways suited to their individual circumstances, taking into account differences in energy demand, electricity access, infrastructure and investment capacity.
“Realising this shift depends on a wide range of forward-looking and co-ordinated policies,” the agency said.
For Africa, where electricity access, grid reliability and energy infrastructure remain critical development issues, the projected shift towards renewable-powered electrification points to the need for sustained investment in generation, transmission, distribution and storage capacity.
