Precious Anga
Lagos — Nigeria’s transition to a green economy could create up to 10.5 million jobs by 2050, positioning the country as one of Africa’s biggest beneficiaries of the global clean energy shift. However, a new report warns that without deliberate interventions, the transition could deepen existing inequalities.
The report, Unlocking Africa’s Green Transition: Opportunities Towards a Green and Inclusive Workforce, released by FSD Africa in partnership with Shell Foundation and talent advisory firm Shortlist, projects that Nigeria’s green economy will generate about 1.2 million jobs by 2030 before expanding to 10.5 million by mid-century.
The projected growth is expected to be driven largely by decentralised industries such as clean cooking, solar home systems and electric mobility rather than large-scale infrastructure projects.
However, researchers warned that the emerging workforce could remain heavily informal, leaving millions of workers vulnerable to poor wages, limited social protection and restricted career progression.
According to the report, about 87 per cent of the projected jobs could be concentrated in the informal sector, while men are expected to dominate the workforce, accounting for roughly 91 per cent of total employment.
The findings also revealed that 73 per cent of green jobs would be generated by nano-enterprises, mostly single-person businesses, while women currently account for less than 10 per cent of the workforce and are largely confined to lower-value roles.
Young people are expected to play a central role in the transition, but nearly 90 per cent could remain trapped in informal employment without targeted support.
Chief Programme Officer at Shell Foundation, Richard Gomes, said Africa’s green transition presents one of the most significant economic opportunities of the century but stressed that its success would depend on making the sector inclusive.
“Africa’s green transition represents one of the most significant economic opportunities of our generation. However, this vision can only be realised if the green economy is designed to work for lower-income and informal workers who power our society, particularly women,” Gomes said.
“The prize here is not simply more green jobs. The prize is future-proofed jobs anchored in sectors that will continue to grow as the world navigates climate, energy and economic disruption.”
The report identified limited access to market-relevant training, severe underinvestment in workforce development systems and inadequate financing for small businesses as major barriers to achieving Nigeria’s green economy ambitions.
To address these challenges, the report recommended improving job quality within existing informal structures rather than forcing rapid formalisation, expanding access to finance for micro-enterprises and scaling up practical, short-term skills training programmes.
Director of Development Impact at FSD Africa, Kevin Munjal, said policymakers must recognise the unique structure of Nigeria’s future green workforce.
“Nigeria’s green workforce will be composed of millions of independent operators, such as solar home system installers and battery-swapping station managers, rather than people on corporate payrolls. Both investment and policy need to reflect that reality,” he said.
Across Africa, the report estimates that green industries could create between 3.8 million and 7.9 million jobs by 2030, rising to between 65.9 million and 84.5 million by 2050.
However, the report cautioned that Africa currently lacks the workforce capacity required to deliver the transition at scale.
Despite possessing 60 per cent of the world’s best solar resources, Africa accounts for only two per cent of the global renewable energy workforce, while just 6.5 per cent of African youths have completed formal vocational training.
The report also highlighted a funding gap, noting that less than one per cent of global climate finance is currently directed towards skills development.
Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Shortlist, Paul Breloff, said investing in people would be critical to achieving climate and economic goals.
“The right human capital is an important input for successful climate-positive growth, so we have to be sure Africa’s workforce is ready for what’s needed. High-quality jobs are also an exciting benefit of the green transformation,” he said.
To accelerate progress, FSD Africa announced the launch of the Green Jobs Innovation Hub, an initiative aimed at mobilising finance, partnerships and workforce development solutions to ensure skills creation keeps pace with investments in green infrastructure.
Experts said the choices governments make today will determine whether Africa’s green transition becomes a powerful engine for inclusive growth or another missed economic opportunity.
