13 February 2019, News Wires — Despite the oil market glut and a collapse in charter rates for oil tankers, experts see a turn around in the market and good times for the tanker charter business.
The shipping industry’s prospects are actually turning a little more bullish, reports Bloomberg, quoting analysts.
The analysts’ optimism stems from a conviction that the world’s refineries will have to process more crude in order to supply ships with new kinds of fuel in 2020 under rules set out by the International Maritime Organization, IMO.
On top of that, reports said, historic trade flows are at risk of disruption as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, and allied producers curb output of one type of crude at a time when American drillers boost supplies of another.
“Despite the latest meltdown, we remain bullish about the tanker market mainly because we believe IMO 2020 requirements will push for oil production growth, which will support freight rates” from the second half of this year, said Espen Fjermestad, an analyst at Fearnley Securities AS in Oslo. “Refineries will need to increase runs to meet increased demand.”
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The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, a wide measure of charter rates mostly for moving crude, has plunged almost 30 percent in the past three months. OPEC and allied producers agreed late last year that they would cut more than 200 million barrels of total output through June — large portion of which would normally be delivered by sea.
Undeterred, shipping analysts surveyed by Bloomberg have, since early November, raised their forecasts for what every class of mainstream crude carrier will earn this year.
Two of the tanker-market’s biggest pureplay stocks — Euronav NV and Frontline Ltd. — are overwhelmingly dominated with buy recommendations.
Very large crude carriers, also known as VLCCs, will earn $29,200 a day in 2019, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with $28,200 a day that they predicted in early November. The vessels’ average earnings slumped to $15,561 a day last year, the lowest since at least 2009, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd.
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The freight market will benefit from IMO 2020 later this year, say firms including Clarksons Platou and Evercore ISI. The measures, designed to limit sulfur emissions, are expected to boost the amount of crude being processed because refineries will need to make more diesel-like fuels.
