News wire — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand than previously expected next week.That rise in demand should increase the amount of gas utilities pull from storage next week. Gas stockpiles were currently around 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS]
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.9 cents, or 0.7%, to $4.047 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:40 a.m. EDT (1240 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 28.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states had risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of 104.1 bcfd on Tuesday. Traders noted preliminary data is often updated later in the day.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 2.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.4 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.
The United States became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a one-week low of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a three-month low of $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Mar 14 Forecast | Week ended Mar 7 Actual | Year ago Mar 14 | Five-year average Mar 14 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -19 | -62 | +5 | -31 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,679 | 1,698 | 2,331 | 1,897 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -11.5 | -11.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.98 | 4.02 | 1.75 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 13.15 | 13.19 | 8.54 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) | 13.18 | 13.64 | 8.95 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 240 | 229 | 255 | 246 | 248 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 19 | 18 | 10 | 20 | 16 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 259 | 247 | 265 | 266 | 264 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.1 | 106.0 | 101.6 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.3 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.7 | 114.9 | 115.3 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.5 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 11.2 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 17.2 | 15.7 | 16.8 | 17.7 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 25.9 | 24.1 | 24.4 | 30.8 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.7 | 23.5 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 85.6 | 81.2 | 84.4 | 92.7 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 111.1 | 107.4 | 110.5 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 93 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 89 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 91 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 21 | Week ended Mar 14 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 16 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 34 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 14 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub | 4.15 | 3.89 | |||
Transco Z6 New York | 3.25 | 2.79 | |||
PG&E Citygate | 3.86 | 3.70 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) | 3.09 | 3.72 | |||
Chicago Citygate | 3.32 | 3.20 | |||
Algonquin Citygate | 3.42 | 3.00 | |||
SoCal Citygate | 3.78 | 3.82 | |||
Waha Hub | 1.53 | -0.79 | |||
AECO | 1.61 | 1.62 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England | 41.54 | 41.07 | |||
PJM West | 49.44 | 45.70 | |||
Mid C | 40.26 | 38.10 | |||
Palo Verde | 14.36 | 23.88 | |||
SP-15 | 4.83 | 24.53 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Joe Bavier – Reuters
