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    Home » US natgas prices edge up on record flows to LNG export plants, cooler forecasts

    US natgas prices edge up on record flows to LNG export plants, cooler forecasts

    March 19, 2025
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    News wire — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand than previously expected next week.
    That rise in demand should increase the amount of gas utilities pull from storage next week. Gas stockpiles were currently around 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS]
    Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.9 cents, or 0.7%, to $4.047 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:40 a.m. EDT (1240 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 28.
    Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states had risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.
    On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of 104.1 bcfd on Tuesday. Traders noted preliminary data is often updated later in the day.
    Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 2.
    LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.4 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.
    The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.
    The United States became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
    Gas was trading at a one-week low of around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a three-month low of $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
    Week ended Mar 14 Forecast
    Week ended Mar 7 Actual
    Year ago Mar 14
    Five-year average
    Mar 14
    U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
    -19
    -62
    +5
    -31
    U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
    1,679
    1,698
    2,331
    1,897
    U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
    -11.5
    -11.9%
    Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
    Current Day
    Prior Day
    This Month Last Year
    Prior Year Average 2024
    Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
    Henry Hub
    3.98
    4.02
    1.75
    2.41
    3.52
    Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
    13.15
    13.19
    8.54
    10.95
    15.47
    Japan Korea Marker (JKM)
    13.18
    13.64
    8.95
    11.89
    15.23
    LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
    Two-Week Total Forecast
    Current Day
    Prior Day
    Prior Year
    10-Year Norm
    30-Year Norm
    U.S. GFS HDDs
    240
    229
    255
    246
    248
    U.S. GFS CDDs
    19
    18
    10
    20
    16
    U.S. GFS TDDs
    259
    247
    265
    266
    264
    LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
    Prior Week
    Current Week
    Next Week
    This Week Last Year
    Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
    U.S. Supply (bcfd)
    U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
    105.7
    106.1
    106.0
    101.6
    97.5
    U.S. Imports from Canada
    9.1
    8.8
    9.3
    N/A
    7.8
    U.S. LNG Imports
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0
    0.1
    Total U.S. Supply
    114.7
    114.9
    115.3
    N/A
    105.4
    U.S. Demand (bcfd)
    U.S. Exports to Canada
    3.8
    4.1
    4.1
    N/A
    3.3
    U.S. Exports to Mexico
    6.2
    6.0
    6.2
    N/A
    5.4
    U.S. LNG Exports
    15.5
    16.1
    15.9
    13.1
    11.8
    U.S. Commercial
    11.2
    10.4
    11.4
    11.9
    11.8
    U.S. Residential
    17.2
    15.7
    16.8
    17.7
    18.3
    U.S. Power Plant
    25.9
    24.1
    24.4
    30.8
    27.5
    U.S. Industrial
    23.7
    23.5
    24.1
    24.5
    23.8
    U.S. Plant Fuel
    5.2
    5.2
    5.2
    5.2
    5.2
    U.S. Pipe Distribution
    2.3
    2.2
    2.2
    2.5
    3.3
    U.S. Vehicle Fuel
    0.1
    0.1
    0.1
    0.1
    0.2
    Total U.S. Consumption
    85.6
    81.2
    84.4
    92.7
    90.1
    Total U.S. Demand
    111.1
    107.4
    110.5
    N/A
    110.6
    N/A is Not Available
    U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
    2025 Current Day
    % of Normal Forecast
    2025
    Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
    2024
    % of Normal Actual
    2023
    % of Normal Actual
    2022
    % of Normal Actual
    Apr-Sep
    92
    93
    74
    83
    107
    Jan-Jul
    89
    90
    76
    77
    102
    Oct-Sep
    90
    91
    77
    76
    103
    U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
    Week ended Mar 21
    Week ended Mar 14
    2024
    2023
    2022
    Wind
    16
    15
    11
    10
    11
    Solar
    6
    7
    5
    4
    3
    Hydro
    7
    7
    6
    6
    6
    Other
    1
    1
    1
    2
    2
    Petroleum
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    Natural Gas
    34
    34
    42
    41
    38
    Coal
    14
    16
    16
    17
    21
    Nuclear
    21
    20
    19
    19
    19
    SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
    Hub
    Current Day
    Prior Day
    Henry Hub
    4.15
    3.89
    Transco Z6 New York
    3.25
    2.79
    PG&E Citygate
    3.86
    3.70
    Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
    3.09
    3.72
    Chicago Citygate
    3.32
    3.20
    Algonquin Citygate
    3.42
    3.00
    SoCal Citygate
    3.78
    3.82
    Waha Hub
    1.53
    -0.79
    AECO
    1.61
    1.62
    ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
    Hub
    Current Day
    Prior Day
    New England
    41.54
    41.07
    PJM West
    49.44
    45.70
    Mid C
    40.26
    38.10
    Palo Verde
    14.36
    23.88
    SP-15
    4.83
    24.53

    Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Joe Bavier – Reuters

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