Mkpoikana Udoma
Port Harcourt — Nigeria’s economy is projected to accelerate to 4.49 percent growth in 2026, driven by structural reforms, easing monetary conditions and rising investments in the oil and gas sector, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.
The projection, contained in the CBN’s latest executive outlook, positions 2026 as a critical year for macroeconomic stabilisation and private-sector-led expansion, with energy production and domestic refining playing a central role.
“The Nigerian economy is expected to continue expanding, with growth projected at 4.49 per cent in 2026,” the CBN said, adding that the outlook is “hinged on continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and a gradually easing monetary policy stance.”
The apex bank noted that Nigeria’s economic performance strengthened in 2025, with growth estimated at 3.89 per cent, up from 3.38 per cent in 2024, supported by improvements in both the oil and non-oil sectors.
It said tighter monetary policy, exchange rate stability and improved fiscal coordination helped moderate inflation, which averaged 21.26 per cent in 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index.
Looking ahead, the CBN expects inflation to ease significantly to an average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven largely by “declining food prices and lower premium motor spirit, PMS, prices,” a development expected to ease cost pressures on businesses and households.
For the energy sector, the Bank identified increased oil output and refining capacity as major growth catalysts.
According to the CBN, growth momentum in 2026 is expected to be “complemented by increased production and investments in the oil sector, supported by improved security surveillance, alongside gains from enhanced domestic refining capacity.”
The external sector outlook also remains positive. The CBN said Nigeria recorded an estimated $5.80 billion balance of payments surplus in 2025, supported by higher exports and capital inflows, while external reserves rose to about $45.01 billion, from $40.19 billion in 2024.
For 2026, reserves are projected to climb further to $51.04 billion, underpinned by reforms in the foreign exchange market, stronger oil and gas output and steady remittance inflows.
“The positive trend in the external position is expected to be sustained in 2026, supported by strong exports, steady remittances inflow, increased oil and gas output, improved domestic refining capacity and rising global demand from key trading partners,” the Bank said.
On fiscal outlook, the CBN projected Federal Government retained revenue and expenditure at N35.51 trillion and N47.64 trillion, respectively, in 2026, implying a provisional deficit of N12.14 trillion, equivalent to 3.01 per cent of GDP. Public debt is projected to rise modestly to 34.68 per cent of GDP by end-2026.
The Bank also expressed optimism about Nigeria’s capital market, noting that it is expected to remain bullish in 2026, “supported by the bank recapitalisation exercise, rising investor confidence and policy measures aimed at fostering growth.”
However, the CBN warned that the outlook is not without risks. It cautioned that inflation could resurge if fiscal spending exceeds benchmarks, while disruptions to crude oil production, adverse weather conditions, geopolitical tensions or renewed protectionist trade policies could undermine growth and external stability.
Despite these risks, the CBN reaffirmed its commitment to balancing price stability with economic growth.
“In 2026, the Bank would sustain its commitment to balancing the objectives of price stability and supporting output growth,” it said, adding that policy tools would be deployed to attract foreign investment, strengthen the foreign exchange market and safeguard financial system stability.
For the oil and gas industry, the CBN’s outlook reinforces expectations that improved security, higher output and expanded domestic refining will remain central to Nigeria’s growth story in 2026, positioning the energy sector as a key driver of the projected economic expansion.
